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everybody shrugged it off and/or moved on. That’s acceptance.

Sorry, that's a non-sequitur. Aside from his bootlickers and the already extremist voices, there might have a good amount of people trying to downplay it, or trying to excuse him for it, but no one in the mainstream looked at what he did and argued that it should be acceptable to go around making Nazi salutes.

If more people had started doing it after he did it, you'd be totally right. But after all the backlash it was clear that he didn't get any support there.

Anyway, I feel like arguing over specific actions is not helpful when the Overton Window is more about shifts in cultural trends. I'd take the surge of "trad wife influencers" much more seriously as an example of "right shifting" than any controversy over what Elon or any asshole billionaire did or did not do.