Political Memes

Man, screw character limits. Also forgot to respond to some stuff so I'm doing that here.

What do you think the land border with China is saving North Korea from, exactly?

Economic starvation?

I would doubt Israeli society would capitulate its genocidal aims based on military coercion for anything less than a successfully prosecuted war

And how would they substitute trade with their foreign partners?

There is an immense amount of pressure on Iran from Arab states, as led in coalition by the Saudis.

Yes, but nothing from Central Asia, and Iran has a good amount of influence on Iraq, its only Arab neighbor. Iran can still sell its oil and drones, as long as it can circumvent sanctions.

In 1973? Not even close to true.

I mean, the intelligence sharing and airlift seem like full-throttle support to me. That's all American could've done in that situation short of boots on the ground.

and certainly pre-industrial wars in a polity that is not all that democratic to begin with,

The Directory et al led most of the war, but it was the Legislative Assembly that started it on the pretense that it would be quick, easy and glorious. It was none of those things, yet they continued anyway with no real peace movement in France.

America, which has three times the population of Egypt and is immensely wealthy,...

My understanding is that the domestic objection to Iraq was more about the pointlessness of the whole thing, because there really was no reason for America to be in Iraq. It's not like the American public soured on the noble mission of liberty espoused by Bush and crew; it was more a realization that there was no noble mission in the first place. Also my answer to all your questions in these two paragraphs is: I legitimately have no fucking idea; this would depend on how this hypothetical democratic Egypt came to be, among other things. For instance an Islamist-led revolution would be much more likely to lead to a war with Israel than one led by liberal moderates or—God forbid—a voluntary transfer of power by the regime. You're right regarding the impact of war, but people are also very good at ignoring the impact of war for one reason or another. The Blitz certainly didn't discourage Britain from fighting in WWII.

... Israel is estimated to have lost 4 billion over the past two years of the attempted Houthi blockade,

It's only getting off that lightly because it still has its Mediterranean ports. Take those away and they will be cut off from the outside world. Add in the Palestinian Intifada that would no doubt be inspired and supported by such action and you get a recipe for something to happen without too many non-Palestinian Arabs getting thrown into the meat grinder.

Is that a viable plan for Egypt, do you think?

Hopefully with less indiscriminate targeting, but yes. I'd also assume most countries would be less willing to attack Egypt so they don't get shut out of the Suez Canal.

Again, see above - even naval supremacy and air superiority - both very questionable achievements - are far from capable of enforcing a blockade against a modernized military.

It doesn't need to be a full blockade; turn that area into a warzone and nobody will want to ship there. Israel doesn't have the economic clout to get around that.

Also I want to note that while you seem to have focused on the war bit, there's also a full spectrum of non-military democratic Arab states could do to significantly pressure Israel, especially by targeting their all too critical relationship with Europe. A more economically robust Arab League could have another go at the original Arab League boycotts of Israel or threaten another oil embargo. I'm also not sure what knobs can be turned regarding the Suez Canal short of denying ships access, but there's probably something.