this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2025
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Part of the problem is intelligence work is usually hidden. There's a survivorship bias problem where people become aware of any failures but aren't aware of successes. While that was unquestionably a very dramatic failure, it's not particularly useful for gauging their effectiveness more broadly.
Historians will hopefully have access to better, more complete information in the future, but we just don't. All we can do is make guesses based on the very limited data we have access to. Leaves us with no actual clue what their real success rate is. All we can say for sure is it's not 100%.