Collapse

891 readers

11 users here now

This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

RULES

1 - Remember the human

2 - Link posts should come from a reputable source

3 - All opinions are allowed but discussion must be in good faith.

4 - No low effort, high volume and low relevance posts.

Related lemmys:

founded 1 year ago

MODERATORS

eleitl@lemm.ee

maketotaldestr0i@lemm.ee

eris@lemm.ee

106

1.5 is dead: How hot will the Earth get? (climateandcapitalism.com)

submitted 2 months ago by Hanrahan@lemmy.world to c/collapse@lemm.ee

14 comments fedilink hide all child comments

2024 was the warmest year since records began being kept 175 years ago. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest State of the Global Climate report:

Each of the past ten years set a new global temperature record.

Each of the past eight years set a new record for ocean heat content.

The 18 lowest Arctic sea-ice extents on record were all in the past 18 years.

The three lowest Antarctic ice extents were in the past three years.

The largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record occurred in the past three years.

The rate of sea level rise has doubled since satellite measurements began.[1]

There is no room for doubt: Earth is getting hotter. The question now is how hot will it get?

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] JubilantJaguar@lemmy.world 19 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (8 children)

Important to understand that these projections have in fact gone down in the last decade, due to the unexpectedly quick roll-out of solar and battery tech.

1.5 was never going to happen, but between ~~2~~ 2.5 and 5 there's still everything to play for. And ~~2~~ 2.5 will look an awful lot better than 5.

PS: realistically, 2's not happening either. But the point is that runaway warming is not a certainty and every bit of progress will count.

[–] fake_meows@lemm.ee 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (7 children)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=false

According to this paper, the paleorecord for our current atmosphere is 10° of warming. So over some period of time, in the future we will reach 10° unless the atmosphere changes before that point. We will reach an equilibrium at 10° hotter than preindustrial. That's based on today's existing CO2.

Eventually. There is a very slow lag time. The lag has confused a lot of the science also (because it makes change hard to measure and there are confounding factors). The response time to reach the full amount of temperature change is around one century!

Luckily, we can avoid the warming if we just remove the CO2 before the temperature rises.

Unluckily, we don't have the technology nor energy sources to remove the CO2.

Or, second solution space: geoengineering / blocking sunlight / other energy interventions that happen at a global scale.

[–] JubilantJaguar@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The IPCC targets are for the current century. Predicting human technology or even human existence any further than that is a bit of a fool's game. And the rest of the planet will obviously go on without us, 10 degrees hotter for a while until feedback systems kick in. Having taken the hit to biodiversity.

But sure, that's interesting information.

[–] fake_meows@lemm.ee 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

At 10° it's the new equilibrium. Not "for a while". Not "until feedback systems kick in". After the feedback systems stop the increase it will be 10° hotter and stay there for tens of thousands of years.

[–] JubilantJaguar@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago

and stay there for tens of thousands of years

Exactly. Until the feedback systems kick in. Earth's temperature has been a rollercoaster ride in geological time. As you surely know already.

load more comments (4 replies)