USpolitics

Well, what I imagine will go wrong is:

A huge storm will, at some point, directly hit a major city. Everyone assumes NOLA but the last few years, big hurricanes have been weirdly blowing around us. It's chaos, so who knows. Other likely targets include Miami, Houston, Atlanta (pretty elevated though), and even east coast cities up to and including NYC.

Then, the government will do nothing, because FEMA has been gutted along with NOAA and everyone else. Because advanced warning will be reduced and people don't believe science anymore, evacuations will be low and so deaths will be higher than they should be.

The real deaths will start in the weeks that follow though. Lack of food, gasoline, clean water, and electricity will all be huge problems. With no federal aid, states will be begging their neighbors for food, fuel, water, and support teams. The national guard will almost certainly be called in and martial law declared immediately.

The riots won't take long to start, but will likely just result in massacres. People with resource or support who are able to survive will almost certainly still lose everything. Years of fighting with insurance companies to get paid. And where gets hit , insurers will pull out of and not offer renewals. Too high risk they'll say.

The vulture capitalists will swoop in to buy everything. They can afford to buy specialized insurance, and will just pass costs along in the form of exorbitant rents. The city will be culturally hollowed out because poor artists and students, who make culture, will be forced out.

So yes, Katrina 2.0, but worse and with more military and more killing. It will probably also economically destroy the state, but I'm not sure exactly what that means or looks like long term.