this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2025
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[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world -4 points 2 months ago (4 children)

it usually takes 10 years to build a nuclear submarine. 5 to 7 years just for construction. Putin is building to attack in less than 4.

Someone needs a time machine.

[–] echodot@feddit.uk 13 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Does he have a robot army I'm unaware of? Where is he getting the troops for an attack in 4 years?

They are effectively already at war with NATO and they're getting their asses handed to them, a direct full-scale no holds-barred conflict would not end well for them.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

I'm not saying he'll win by any means. That's what he thinks he's building up for though. Putin seems of the opinion if he can slowly bleed Ukraine then if/when he pushes into NATO, they'll be tapped out, and he can win with meat grinder tactics, as long as the US doesn't show up. Which is possible with Trump knee capping our military, and bringing in a lot of meat shields from North Korea, and maybe a bunch of Chinese that Xi doesn't like.

What I don't think he gets, is that Poland alone could very likely erase Russia, right now. And they would very much not be alone. And they're backed stopped with French and UK nukes. So there's a hard limit to how far he's going to get. Although I think the world will be a much worse place if France has to use their nuclear warning shot doctrine.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 4 points 2 months ago

How many potential military men are there in Russia?

140 million people? Half male? Half of that the right age? 70% of that military capable? What are we at? 25 million?

Minus the million he has burned so far I guess.

How quickly or effectively could those 24 million be mobilized?

Remember too that pulling these men into the military reduces Russia’s industrial output which also has military consequences.

How big is the Russian military right now? 1.5 million active and maybe a million contract? That allows them to deploy how many in theatre (as opposed to defence and operations at home)? 500,000 maybe?

Can Putin take Europe with a pool of 20 million men where maybe 20% that number are active at a time? He seems to be having quite a time taking Ukraine.

The Russian population gets older every day. There is an excellent argument to be made that Putin attacked when he did because his draft pool will be way too small in 10 years. By that logic, unless Putin wins convincingly in Ukraine soon, it will be generations before he has a large enough army to raise any credible challenge to Europe.

Equipment wise, I do not think they are even keeping inventory constant. The number of planes, tanks, ships, and missiles goes down every day. They are maybe increasing their capability with drones.

Overall, Russia will be older, smaller, poorer, and less well equipped in 4 years.

Defeating Russia in Ukraine means taking Russia off the board for the foreseeable future (nukes aside).

[–] kreskin@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Russia wont have enough planes or armor in 4.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 0 points 2 months ago

I sincerely hope you are correct, but they're on a full war time economy and building flat out. The real question is if Ukraine can disrupt manufacturing supply lines enough to make a difference. Hitting the bombers helps now, they need to hit the factories making engines for the bombers of tomorrow.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 1 points 2 months ago

How many potential military men are there in Russia?

140 million people? Half male? Half of that the right age? 70% of that military capable? What are we at? 25 million?

Minus the million he has burned so far I guess.

How quickly or effectively could those 24 million be mobilized?

Remember too that pulling these men into the military reduces Russia’s industrial output which also has military consequences.

How big is the Russian military right now? 1.5 million active and maybe a million contract? That allows them to deploy how many in theatre (as opposed to defence and operations at home)? 500,000 maybe?

Can Putin take Europe with a pool of 20 million men where maybe 20% that number are active at a time? He seems to be having quite a time taking Ukraine.

The Russian population gets older every day. There is an excellent argument to be made that Putin attacked when he did because his draft pool will be way too small in 10 years. By that logic, unless Putin wins convincingly in Ukraine soon, it will be generations before he has a large enough army to raise any credible challenge to Europe.

Equipment wise, I do not think they are even keeping inventory constant. The number of planes, tanks, ships, and missiles goes down every day. They are maybe increasing their capability with drones.

Overall, Russia will be older, smaller, poorer, and less well equipped in 4 years.

Defeating Russia in Ukraine means taking Russia off the board for the foreseeable future (nukes aside).