this post was submitted on 14 May 2025
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There are way too many small rockets in development, so they can't all make it. Europe still benefits from "domestic" launch capabilities, so they'll prop some up, but they don't need a dozen. Anything less than 1000kg to LEO seems like misplaced effort at this point, which is why I left off some really small launchers (Orbex, Skyrora, Hyimpulse, etc).
Ariane might be able to follow ULA and stay relevant until reusable rockets knock them out of the market, which will take longer to happen in Europe. Ariane 6 launching consistently is good, but that can't be enough.