this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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Nevermind that it would bring down the Russian and Chinese governments on Nigeria if they started killing their people... there is also the fact that Wagner are a battle hardened force that for over a decade has seen non-stop combat in everywhere from Ukraine to Syria. Niger and allies are using a strategy that has proven extremely successful in Syria at preventing western powers from doing another Libya. By inviting Russian and Chinese companies into their nations, it creates a situation where the geopolitical fall out becomes a lot higher for anyone doing a full scale invasion. There is also the issue of the Nigerian military currently fighting multiple insurgencies within their own borders (can't commit much of their military) and Wagner always deploying with Pantsir units that make mincemeat out of aircraft. ECOWARs wouldn't be able to defeat entrenched Wagner forces when Nigeria can't even handle urban fighting at home against various Islamist groups.
Also:
I don't know how to say this, but international law is not really a specific set of magical words that everyone has to respect at all times. It's more like a set of guidelines that smaller nations have to abide by, while the big guys get to do whatever they want. If Russia has an agreement with the people currently holding the reins of power in Niger, there is nothing preventing them from stationing troops (sorry, "mercs") and using them to guard extraction projects that Russia wants. Also, Russia is currently the most sanctioned country on Earth, so I struggle to sort of see what the west plans on doing against them, in particular in light of the general antipathy that West Africa feels towards Europe.
Thirdly, stationing troops in another country as a "tripwire" force is also something that the Americans and other NATO countries have been doing for a while now. Otherwise the miniscule force in the Baltics make no sense, because their one job is to die so that the Americans can declare war on the basis of "their" soldiers being attacked.
Legal realists rise up!
the actual US troops in the Baltics are also backed up by NATO membership of those nations. the parallel would be if the US had contractors somewhere, and used their deaths as justification for intervention---which to my knowledge the US has not ever done. the US basically never discusses contractors' deaths to launder low official bodycounts for wars. it'd actually be a novel development to launder real or proxy war on behalf of a specifically disavowable asset being attacked.
The death of 4 blackwater mercs was the justification of the first battle of Fallujah. It's not quite the same but I thought it should be mentioned.
oh i did forget that, lol. quite different tho i agree
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