Their population is 140 million. Half are women. 70 million. 10% are the right age for war, but let's count 20%. 14 million potential soldiers. Easily half of those are alcoholics or otherwise sick. 7 million. Then you actually need people to work at factories and what not, you cannot just send everyone to the war. Let's say half, so we're down to 3.5 million. Let's assume they conscripted those. In the military you need cooks, drivers, mechanics, instructors etc. They say that in an army every frontline soldier is backed by 4-6 support personell, this is ruzzia, so let's assume just one, even if that's impossible. Now we're down to 1.5 million soldiers.

They already lost close to a million (dead and wounded), yes some are back after recovering, but they're close to literally run out of people who can support their "slow winning". 40k Koreans? Not statistically significant. Weapons? They're already using vintage shit because they lost the modern ones.

Yes, they're still grinding but extremely slowly and their replenishment rate is nowhere close to be sustainable.

Pessimistically, Ukraine needs to hold till the end of 2026, optimistically, ruzzian aggression will collapse within the next 6 months.

Btw, it will not be gradual. They will pretend until the end and then it will be fairly quick. WW1 lasted 4 years and was a war of attrition, mostly static with a quick collapse in the last 6 months or so.

So no, they're not winning. If anything, they already lost.