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This is potentially a seismic shift in global finance/economics.
If US treasuries are no longer considered the "investment of last resort" (which they shouldn't be, since even sane Americans lack the commitment and risk tolerance to fight corruption and degeneracy in their own country), this may result in the dollar losing its status as the global reserve currency.
If that happens, the Americans will be fucked.
I have "US defaulting on its debt" on my Trump presidency bingo card. No one knows what happens if it comes to that.
I also have "US testing a nuclear warhead" on there, for what it's worth.
Trump on treasury
source: https://www.ft.com/content/7757e480-6aae-4a61-986e-52a2c2690f91
don't count = default
I don't think most people understand how critical this is. US treasuries losing safe haven status is the type of thing that will be taught in history books 80 years from now.
It will be like learning about Gavrilo Princip in 2025. Seemingly "meaningless" tedious historical facts, but at a closer look Princip (indirectly) shaped the course of much of human history in the 20th century.
Last year there were rumblings about this exact thing happening and far too many people just blew it off.
Now the chickens have come home to roost and everyone is shocked. 🙄
That last statement accurately describes the constituents of those government officials and large swathes if the American electorate. The fact that it's politically viable to muse about these things is so fucking idiotic . So many Americans owe their safe and prosperous lives to things of which they are completely ignorant.
Not just the American will be fuck. It will be a financial meltdown.
On one hand I agree with you. This won't only impact the US. Perhaps we'll get hit harder than the Americans (at least some parts of the world).
On the other hand I would argue the rest of the world is much more connected on a visceral level. The Americans have their feet and legs, when the world uses meters and centigrade. American prices are always provided on a list basis (and local oligarchs and their shills constantly lie that modern software solutions can't apply local tax adjustment algorithms on a dynamic basis), the rest of the world has true prices (only in English would one have to clarify what you mean by true prices).
I am not saying that only Americans will get fucked, but the rest of the world has a measure of dynamism that Americans don't (not to mention a much higher tolerance to challenges).
Perhaps there are some long terms benefits to Trump's behaviour. We can find alternative to American-style corruption and degeneracy. While there are many sane Americans, they also need to take a more sober attitude to their current situation and be willing to take risks and be less arrogant about "home of the brave" and similar polemics.
Yes maybe like Lemmy, a more federated type trade rather than centralize financial/ currency wise. That will be great.
Sounds healthy in the long run. We have way too much financial economy leeching off of the real economy. It needs to melt down to a reasonable size.
be careful to what you wish for.
If U.S. Treasuries were to experience a significant meltdown, it could lead to a widespread erosion of trust in the bond market. Many countries rely on the issuance of bonds to finance essential infrastructure development—roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals. If borrowing costs rise sharply due to increased risk perceptions (not paying back/defaulting), governments may be forced to scale back or abandon critical projects. This could stifle economic growth, reduce job creation, and ultimately lead to a decline in living standards.
I don't disagree on your reasonable size point but there is a way to get there rather than breaking it.
Sounds like something that could be solved by proper taxation of wealth and profits from capital.
Like at the time when the US and other countries were experiencing their greatest economic boom, best infrastructure for the time and best access to education and economic opportunities.
We still had treasuries and bonds to help finance that stuff even when we had a more progressive tax structure
Euros or rmb as the new reserve currency? Place your bets now (literally if you like).