The pushback from the right has relied heavily on anti-trans rhetoric, a line of attack that internal polling shows has proven persuasive to voters in battleground House districts, three people who have reviewed the data told POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to discuss the inside information.
Without a well-funded campaign to defend and bolster the equality amendment, deep blue New York could reject a referendum in support of abortion rights — with dire national political implications for Democrats.
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In addition to cementing protections for reproductive health care and LGBTQ+ rights in the state constitution: It includes language also meant to bolster rights based on age. On LGBTQ+ protection it specifies: sexual orientation, gender, gender expression and gender identity.
Republican candidates for the House and state Legislature warn the amendment would lead to trans people playing in women’s sports or weaken statutory rape laws — claims supporters of the amendment have said are false and amount to fearmongering.
GOP candidates running statewide on an anti-abortion platform have not been successful, but their approach to the amendment is different. And Democrats competing in battleground House seats acknowledge that unanswered attacks against it could be effective.
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One Democratic consultant who has reviewed internal polling found voters in battleground House districts are susceptible to the argument that the amendment would harm kids. Voters generally support abortion rights and the rights of LGBTQ+ people, the polling found.
“But if you add in the far-right talking points about this — boys competing in girls’ sports — support erodes quickly, and in these swing districts it can dampen the enthusiasm for the candidates who are running on a support position,” said one Democrat who reviewed the data and was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the internal polling.
Maybe in Kansas, but this is New York where the Democrats have a supermajority. If they think the campaign being associated with the Democratic party will risk its passage, that's an indictment on them, not some truism of politics. You don't need conservatives and independents to win votes in New York.
On the other hand, the NY Democratic Party has been spectacularly bad at winning what should be a very easy state with party leadership more worried about keeping the left in check than actually promoting Democratic values.
New York doesn't have a supermajority. They periodically don't even have a majority in the State Senate, thanks to Governor Cuomo handing the Republicans a conservative gerrymander back in 2014.
Look who they elect. Governor Hochel fucked the city on congestion pricing in the name of a purely ficticious pool of car-reliant small business owners. Gillibrand spends more time going to crypto-bro fundraising events than constituency meetings. Schumer's got the hand of Wall Street so far up his ass he coughs fingers. Hillary Clinton got to be a Senator for a term just by showing up and handing the state party a carpetbag full of cash. Mayor Adams literally lives in New Jersey and hates anyone who rides the Metro to boot. AOC took the seat off the most not-appearing-in-this-district Congressman since Tom DeLay in a primary that barely broke double digits. This was the state that gave us Rudy Giuliani, Michael Bloomberg, Donald Trump, and Jeffery Epstein.
New York politicians suck ass. The only thing that keeps the state from swinging red is the fact that Republicans are everything terrible about Democrats plus they're even more racist to boot. Even then, they're not above handing out taxpayer money to host the GOP's convention every couple of decades.
It literally has a supermajority right now. 42-21 in the upper house and 102-48 in the lower house.