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this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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Biden under performed his polling in 2020 almost every state; Trump over performed his polling almost across the board, almost every state. The fundamental issue with polling is that is measures demographic distribution, but not demographic engagement.
since we're not talking about any other race right now, this point:
Is the only one that matters. On average Biden under formed by 4% (-4). On average, Trump over-performs (not down ballots, only Trump has this quality) by 8% (+8).
Just dropping Biden and we put 4 points back on the board. This is a great starting point. We should keep the +8 to Trump on the board when we look around. Trump polls at 42% favorability; he's not the incumbent so some standard metrics like the gallup won't help us here. We're really going to be out over our handle bars a bit, but I think +8 is a good starting point to make safe bets on.
So to feel "good" about this, we should look to see Kamala up 8 points, which I don't think is particularly challenging. I'm going to be putting down a couple bets for 3 weeks out that she's in the 45+ range in the aggregate. She's got a lot of meat that Biden left on the bone. There are easily 4 points available to her with an improved Israel/ Gaza policy. There are another 4 points available to her with some very basic policies like paid family leave and child tax credit.
Boom. Two things and she's easily over the hump. Pick a Northern midwest Democrat and send them to signal your ME policy, or you do that and send your VP to GA/ NC and start working those states.
My called shot: This time next month (4-5 weeks), Kamala is poling at 45-48%; Trump will be polling at 38-42%.