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this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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Here's what's been on my mind about polls for the last year or so...
In 2016, we all know that the national polls were basically accurate, giving Hillary Clinton the popular vote - and she did indeed win the popular vote. But the state polls were off significantly in the states that mattered for that election.
In 2017, with retooled polls, the off-year elections basically matched up with what the pollsters said.
In 2018, the polls predicted a blue wave, and it fully materialized, with Democrats even over-performing.
In 2019, the polls were still pretty accurate, but again, Democrats over-performed in special elections.
In 2020, the polls at all levels except the presidency underestimated Democratic support.
In 2021, the Democrats again over-performed versus the polls.
In 2022, Democrats not only over-performed, they completely obliterated the supposed "red wave" that was supposed to occur that year. It became a pink trickle, with Republicans taking the House by the barest thread, and Democrats unexpectedly increasing their lead in the Senate.
In 2023, Democrats over-performed again in special elections.
In this year's early special election, Democrats are still over-performing versus the polls.
Democrats have been consistently exceeding the expectations set by polls since around 2018. And I have a hypothesis about it: Pollsters are basically fucked for the time being.
Here's why:
I've held for some time that the polls between Biden and Trump might have anywhere from a four point to a nine point error in Trump's favor. And that might apply to Harris and Trump as well.
So... Harris has a two-point lead in this poll. If the polling error hasn't been fixed this cycle - and I don't think it has - her real lead might be six points. And it might be eleven points.
I think there might be good reason to hope. BUT....
The pollsters might have figured their shit out. Maybe the polling error is fixed. There's no way to know until the election. And here's what we need to do: Prove that it's not fixed yet and make Harris massively over-perform versus the polls. Sweep the motherfuckers out of the House and Senate while you're at it. Show that the polls since 2017 have continued to underestimate Democratic support, and kick the fucking fascists in the fucking teeth - electorally speaking, of course.
im reading, im reading, im reading...
"hell, yeah!"
Biden under performed his polling in 2020 almost every state; Trump over performed his polling almost across the board, almost every state. The fundamental issue with polling is that is measures demographic distribution, but not demographic engagement.
since we're not talking about any other race right now, this point:
Is the only one that matters. On average Biden under formed by 4% (-4). On average, Trump over-performs (not down ballots, only Trump has this quality) by 8% (+8).
Just dropping Biden and we put 4 points back on the board. This is a great starting point. We should keep the +8 to Trump on the board when we look around. Trump polls at 42% favorability; he's not the incumbent so some standard metrics like the gallup won't help us here. We're really going to be out over our handle bars a bit, but I think +8 is a good starting point to make safe bets on.
So to feel "good" about this, we should look to see Kamala up 8 points, which I don't think is particularly challenging. I'm going to be putting down a couple bets for 3 weeks out that she's in the 45+ range in the aggregate. She's got a lot of meat that Biden left on the bone. There are easily 4 points available to her with an improved Israel/ Gaza policy. There are another 4 points available to her with some very basic policies like paid family leave and child tax credit.
Boom. Two things and she's easily over the hump. Pick a Northern midwest Democrat and send them to signal your ME policy, or you do that and send your VP to GA/ NC and start working those states.
My called shot: This time next month (4-5 weeks), Kamala is poling at 45-48%; Trump will be polling at 38-42%.
There's another reason I think too.
In 2016, it was embarrassing to be for Trump.
But after 2016, it became a purity test.
There's likely households being called up where the person on the phone is legit scared of saying they aren't MAGA if the other people in the house hear.
That's likely far less common for any D households.
I would like us to roll through polling booths as a human voting tsunami so large people hundreds of years from now will speak of it like we do the mythical arrows that blocked out the sun. We need to hit the Right so fucking hard they begin hitting themselves in their confusion.
I want their entire party to eat itself and their modern ideology die. They need to Ouroboros the fuck off.
Then, after we have 200,000,000 d20'd their asses across every polling booth, we need to take our proud asses, mamba line up to our remaining politicians, and tell them to stop being fucking imbeciles because if we can come together for this, we can come together for their seats.
thanks to voter suppression and gerrymandering; they're decades ahead and prepared to stop that wave before it happens.
If a pollster called me and left a voicemail I'd probably call them back. Not sure how that changes the scientific rigor of the survey, but it would definitely get at least one more participate under 65.
(One of the few things I like about politics is that even at 42 I'm considered young.)
Darn millennials!
I kind of feel bad for GenZ now taking all the heat we took for the past decade lol.
Great comment. It's almost always best to assume it's a dead-heat and every single vote matters. Strategically, even if you're confident you are winning a land-slide, no campaign will ever say that because it risks some more casual voters going, "Ah this one is in the bag; others have this handled. I'm not going."
Another great reason to sweep these fucks : she supports medicare for all. We can have motherfucking healtchare in this shitheel country if we absolutely obliterate these fuckwits.
Lets fucking do it.
The best poll that could happen is any social media company having a "are you going to vote poll, and extrapolating based on their known demographics. They already know everything else.