this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2024
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The best indicator for who will be president in America is, in my opinion, the betting markets. At this point they are basically the collective opinion of people who make money predicting these things based on all available evidence. Currently Trump is about a four to one favourite to win according to this indicator. Pretty amazing
I don't bet/gamble and have no idea what this means lol I have never understood the betting ratio thing "2 to 1". Like, is that in favour of trump or against? No clue lol.
I think when it's phrased like that, it means in favour of whoever was mentioned. Based on the phrasing, I take it the consensus is that for every 4 people who like (or perhaps bet?) on Trump, 1 likes (or bets) on Biden. I think
It's like rolling a five sided dice, four faces are trump; and if you bet $100 on trump to win, and he does, your profit would only be $20
I see! Thank you! Explained like that it makes sense! I will try to store this information in my brain hahah
Using that example, if someone bet $100 on Biden, would that mean they get $400?
Edit: no. Would that mean they would profit $80, and end up with $180?
No you'd end up with 500
You would end up with 400 assuming the betting companies didn't take commision, but they do.
I think people put too much stock in the "assassignation attempt = win" idea though. There are a whole bunch of things that were always considered to be true about US politics that Trump has proven to not actually be the case - a few years ago it would have been considered a rule of politics that someone who was even accused of a crime, suspected of sexual assaults etc. would never be able to win an election. Trump has broken all the "rules" so far, I don't think this is any different.
Has that ever been a thing in America?
One dude a long time ago lost because he couldn't spell potato