☣️The fable about “red mercury”: Kremlin intelligence services continue information operation in Syria
Another episode of the Kremlin’s information operation in Syria directed against Ukraine — Russian intelligence services offer on the so-called Syrian “black market of weapons” another mystical black box with two capsules, which allegedly contain dangerous “chemicals”.
▪️One of the capsules is inscribed: “PU.9424 U”, the other – “HG25 P307 9.99 U92”.
So, this time the Muscovites, in addition to the fictional “plutonium” [Pu ― plutonium], are reviving the old Soviet fable about the so-called “red mercury” [Hg ― mercury] – a substance that does not exist in nature.
❗️“Red mercury” is a fiction of the Soviet special services, which was used for a large-scale disinformation campaign in the Middle East in the 80s-90s of the 20th century. The legend about “red mercury”, created in Moscow and directed against foreign intelligence, claimed that this modification of the chemical element could become a material for making a “terrible” bomb.
The hacks from Lubyanka claim that the container they brought was purchased from “corrupt officials of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine” for “immediate sale”.
Also, along with the fake “elements” for making a “nuclear bomb”, the Russians in Syria are offering ten capsules with supposedly “unknown toxic gases” – in fact, these are reagents for an old chemical intelligence device, which agents of the aggressor state had already tried to sell earlier as part of an information operation against Ukraine.
“Nothing new and original - Russian special services operate according to the patterns of their predecessors from the 20th century. So the old mythology about “red mercury” indicates an aggravation of the genre crisis among the Kremlin’s special services. We see how Russia is helplessly “getting out of its pants”, sowing conspiracy theories in order to discredit Ukraine, destabilize the situation in the Middle East, in particular in Syria, where the criminal regime of Putin’s friend, Bashar Assad, has fallen. Ukraine is taking all measures, including through the line of military intelligence, to destroy these next hybrid plans of Russia”, - noted the representative of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Yusov.
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According to FFI, the Ukrainian battlefield experience reinforced Norway’s decision to prioritize artillery systems capable of achieving more than 40 kilometers in range and better survivability, and led to a reassessment of ammunition acquisition strategy, favoring volume and cost-effective accuracy improvements over limited high-cost precision rounds. The evaluation judged the acquisition to be economically sound and aligned with modern operational requirements, despite noting that long-term viability would depend on integrated force protection and continued ammunition procurement.
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The K9 VIDAR is a Norwegian variant of the South Korean K9 Thunder, configured to meet national requirements. It is equipped with a 155 mm L52 gun and designed for indirect fire support at ranges exceeding 40 kilometers. The platform is powered by a 1,000-horsepower MTU diesel engine and has a maximum speed of 67 km/h. With a five-person crew, the system measures 12 meters in length, 3.4 meters in width, and 3.5 meters in height, and weighs approximately 48 tons.
It features a rate of fire of up to eight rounds per minute and a burst capacity of three rounds in 15 seconds. It can relocate within 30 to 60 seconds between firing positions, reducing exposure to counter-battery fire. The hydropneumatic suspension minimizes shock and enables stable operation across diverse terrain and weather conditions. Norwegian trials confirmed the system’s ability to fire Nammo’s 155 mm IM HE-ER rounds to a range of 43.6 kilometers. A maximum range of 54 kilometers has been reached under test conditions. The K9 VIDAR is compatible with the BONUS 155 mm sensor-fused top-attack munition and is expected to integrate future ramjet-assisted rounds with ranges up to 100 kilometers.
Due to South Korean arms exports limitations it is highly unlikely the K9 will see service in defense of Ukraine, but I think it is important to keep providing simple but direct evidence of my arguments about the general media's lack of recognition of how important 155mm artillery systems are in comparison to the more flashy drones and missiles that strangle the imaginations of people.
Patriot missiles are a major thing for Ukraine, but 155mm shells don't need to wait around to swat down Putin's war effort, they actively leap into the sky, seek out the Russian war effort and apply themselves to stopping it with vigor.
South Korea is looking at the war in Ukraine and concluding that armored 155mm artillery is essential for their defense, and so is Norway. Two different countries each facing the realistic medium term prospect of an armored fullscale land war from different countries are both looking at Ukraine and concluding they need more of what Ukraine has in the 155mm department (well, Ukraine has the M109 and other 155mm artillery systems including the domestically produced Bohdana in towed and armored wheeled self propelled variants not the K9 but you get my point).
I will repeat the calculus for this war right now is brutally simple, Ukraine has a superior towed and self propelled 155mm artillery gun production domestically, it has domestic production capacity for 155mm shells and the international community has recently consolidated around ensuring Ukraine will continue to have that capacity both in cannons and ammunition for said cannons. At every level Ukraine's approach to applying artillery fire is more integrated in a dynamic combined arms sense than Russia's which is dependent on more structured doctrine and higher volumes of artillery shells available to fire (which Russia can no longer count on having access to), and finally Ukraine's fire control systems for artillery derive from the M109 Paladin systems which is one of the most fearsome weapon systems on earth.
Also it hardly needs to be said but Ukraine has far superior UAV drone spotters for coordinating friendly artillery... by a long measure...
Most crucially though to the calculus of the war, Ukraine has invested in thorough counter-artillery capacity while simultaneously investing seriously in keeping its own highly trained artillery crew alive. The longer the artillery crews survive the more ruthless and lethal they become in terms of being able to decisively support friendly infantry and armor. Especially given the sophisticated digital fire control systems Ukraine is using in their artillery.
This coupled with the fact that Russia clearly cannot even defend its artillery adequately enough to make effective use of it spells disaster for Russia. This is how land warfare has always worked since gunpowder entered into the equation.
Do not believe the media blitz right now, it must be a very scary time to live in Ukraine (it is scary enough to watch from an international perspective), but the media blitz is happening to attempt to cover up that this is the last serious chance Putin has to make decisive progress in the war in Ukraine and that window just slammed on Putin's fingers. The window slamming in this metaphor being the production graph for towed and armored self propelled 155mm artillery and ammunition for/in Ukraine. Compare what Ukraine states now for Bohdana production vs. a year ago, the difference cannot be expressed in words adequately in terms of battlefield impact.
Now the international powers that be are more interested in entering into weapons contracts with Ukraine than they are "stepping back and letting Russia continue the war" (i.e. selling vital electronics components to Russia for their fighterbomber jets?) and the longer Russia continues the war the more they underline how international powers stand far more to gain by working with Ukraine and gaining access to their advanced technology and innovative tactics than they do partnering with Russia and gaining access to outdated equipment, doctrine and armored vehicles that simply cannot protect their crews and passengers period.
[UK] will provide for the delivery of more than 5,000 air defence missiles from Thales, which will not only significantly strengthen the UK's defence capabilities but also help Ukraine continue its resistance in the war launched by Russia.
The UK also confirms the provision of up to £283 million in bilateral assistance to Ukraine over the coming year.
"This announcement underlines our continued support for Ukraine – boosting their air defences against devastating drone and missile attacks and supporting the critical work to reconstruct this nation and provide the hope that they need," the government press service quoted UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner as saying.
The United Kingdom will allocate up to £10.5 million for the Governance Reform Programme and up to £1 million to support Ukraine's Green Transition Office in the 2025–2026 financial year.
The deal concerns the FZ275 LGR, a 70mm guided missile developed by Thales. Originally an unguided aviation rocket, the FZ275 LGR has been upgraded with a semi-active laser guidance system, giving it a strike range of up to 3,000 meters.
The missile is capable of intercepting drones, including those used in Russian attacks, and is compatible with the Vampire air defense systems currently deployed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
This compatibility will allow mobile fire teams to supplement machine guns with guided munitions, providing a cost-effective alternative to more expensive air defense missiles.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2FECb2L45t8
I imagine the idea is to use a tried and true high quality but ultimately basic 70mm tube missile and aim it really smart which is a good cost effective way to deal with swarms.
EMONTS: That’s the main external difference between the two weapons. The guided rocket – or missile – does not need to spin, like their unguided counterparts which have ‘curved clams’ on the rear end. It needs to maintain a flat flight path. Therefore, we put canards behind the front. The canards maintain the flight trajectory after the engine is spent which takes around one second.
After the engine is spent, it becomes a ballistic munition and utilises gravitational forces to glide onto the target which has been established by the launching-platform via its Wescam sensor or by an external source such as a single soldier or UAV.
The gliding mechanism is what distinguishes the system from traditional missiles. However, the main benefit is that the FZ275 LGR is compatible with all current launchers that we have delivered to our customers. There are over 2,000 launch pods in use all over the world, and for each one a guided solution is feasible.
We have also developed lock-on-before-launch functionality, greatly reducing potential waste and unwanted collateral damage. This, in turn, improves survivability, since a helicopter can remain lethal outside of effective MANPADS range.
I don't necessarily agree with the author's worldview and politics, as a USian while I am wary of China the obsessive fear mongering over China as a distraction from talking about basic things like say getting people in the US good quality affordable healthcare is obnoxious and self defeating even if it is your job to analyze such things. My whole life US warhawks have been writing nonstop about war with China.. yeah it could happen but these kinds of people are monotone and exhausting... If you aren't from the US you don't probably have any idea how repeatedly this narrative is beat over USians heads. Even during the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars the US military industrial complex was loudly repeating to the US populace that this wasn't the actual war they were going to fight and we needed to remember that China was the real enemy.....
That being said, the analysis about the Russian war here is spot on. The thing was, the military veterans that were part of the US military industrial complex were right, years later we ended up in a near peer conflict with Russia fighting much more traditional fullscale combined arms armored warfare, but growing up during that time was being stuck between two different kinds of warhawks one right and one wrong...
ANYWAYS, despite all that Small Wars Journal has been consistently one of the more lucid and clear eyed publications on the kinds of wars the US was actually fighting and what the implications and consequences would therein be.
For Russia, 2024 brought another year of Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine. Russian personnel and equipment losses have been enormous, and territory gained in 2024 was trivial (Russia captured 0.67% of Ukraine in 2024), but the worst part for Russia was that it became even less competitive with the West. Two decades ago, when Putin came to power in Russia, it seemed obvious that Russia needed to shift away from the old Soviet mistakes of ruthless information control and an economy over-reliant on defense spending and oil and gas exports. However, instead of improving the education system, opening information flows, and building a modern and diversified economy, Putin followed the familiar, and doomed, Soviet path. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine radically accelerated these negative trends for Russia, and each day the war continues puts Russia further behind.
As was pointed out in last year’s assessment, Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine proved that thirty years of post-Soviet Russian Irregular Warfare against Ukraine failed, forcing Putin to choose between watching Ukraine join the West or launching the largest and most expensive war in Europe since World War II. Russia’s expensive war effort left it with no resources in 2024 to retain its former position in the Caucasus, where former ally Armenia is pulling out of Russia’s orbit, or in Syria, where Russia failed to save the Assad regime. Russia is receiving useful assistance from Iran and North Korea, but these partners will demand payment for their assistance.'
To give people some perspective on how someone watching from the US might see this war in a broader political context, the US militaries' involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan was in some ways a boon for the US military industrial complex, but it also was an existential threat. US forces using equipment they were trained to use to fight against a Russian cold war invasion (i.e. war in Ukraine) were being asked to do patrol missions and essentially function as a police force.
The Iraq and Afghanistan wars became essentially a militarized police occupation. Initially this resulted in a very high lethality rate to US soldiers driving unarmored humvees around to conduct these patrols (the basic humvee is NOT armored, stock it is a utility vehicle not a combat vehicle). Mine Resistant Armored Personnel vehicles or MRAPs were developed quickly and fielded to save the lives of soldiers but this made the U.S. military industrial complex utterly freak out because it directly implied a future for the formerly glorious Soviet Union crushing US Military, the most powerful entity on earth!!! where it primarily functioned as a glorified police force.
Thus, even as MRAPs were being fielded and saving lives in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military was quickly moving to reject these armored vehicles in favor of more traditional lower profile armored vehicles optimized to survive against highly sophisticated and lethal direct fire anti-tank weapons, not a homemade bomb blast from below. The "obsolete" MRAPs actively saving soldiers lives needed to go somewhere however, so they were given to US police departments.
-good thing the U.S. military realized all those years ago that MRAPs would be needed in an extended conventional conflict too.... oh wait...
The transfer of MRAPs to police forces all over the US supercharged the process of the militarization of US police. Military types largely ignored this aspect however in favor of discussing how it was a good thing the US military could now focus on building an army to destroy China. Well... you have seen the impact of flooding US police forces with MRAPs has had... and paradoxically MRAPs are actually very useful for conventional warfare as logistics, resupply, troop ferrying and ambulance vehicles as Ukraine has demonstrated exhaustively.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54646
This underlines that the reason the US military didn't want the MRAPs is the same reason the US military never bothered to develop MRAPs until US soldiers started getting blown up left and right in unprotected humvees patrolling Iraq and Afghanistan.
Here is a good question, why isn't the US military taking back all the MRAPs it pawned off to police departments in the US and shipping them off to Ukraine after the police quietly admitted they didn't need that warlike of a vehicle to keep the communities they were part of safe???.......???
Trashing the blind self-destructive militarism of my society aside... the way Russia has evolved it's use of armored vehicles by comparison is shocking, it is blatantly obvious they haven't basically at all beyond innovating improvised drone defenses and it is catastrophic for them in this moment that they are trying to conduct a mind-bendingly massive infantry offensive without ANY effective armored personnel carriers. If you watch recent combat footage of Russians manuevering infantry with armor, the infantry is almost always ON TOP of the armored vehicle which is a direct admission those vehicles don't actually function as armored vehicles for the infantry or the armor crews.
You can say this is a difference in doctrine and yeah sure it is, the difference in doctrine is Russia doesn't protect its soldiers because it clearly does not care about their lives. This is especially true now that Ukraine is beginning to have a steady supply of artillery which Russia has not had to contend with up until this point.
Russian soldiers yell from the ditch nearby "Stalker are you gonna use that?"
Stalker laughs and says "no of course, take it just make sure to go back the same precise way I went in and you will be safe!"
On a serious note, this is a concrete example of how serious Russia's logistical issues are do to a logistics vehicle (especially lightly armored transportation vehicles/APCs) shortage.
Do a quick google search for "wars that were lost because a numerically superior army on the offensive overstressed and outran its logistics capability", it might be almost all of them.
Honestly this is a terrible strategy as how can Russia ensure that enroute that the carts don't become traps for the Russias meeting up to resupply from them? Either literally Ukraine could intercept and place explosives on the cart or an intelligence drone just follows the cart until the soldiers come out of the bushes to get their food and water and then the drone calls in an artillery strike.. end of story.. Humans driving a lightly armored logistics vehicle or an unmanned small ground vehicle driving erratically as it moves to an unknown destination would be much harder to predict. Really, in the day in age that FPV fiber optic drones can loiter and wait on the ground next to the tracks, this is the kind of solution you try when all of your good solutions are no longer available for you to choose. Russians are fools to continue this war.
