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edit inspired by this post

https://www.rfunews.com/articles/russia-faces-historic-strategic-defeat-in-the-caucasus

Overall, the Zangezur corridor is more than an infrastructure project; it is a strategic defeat for Russia. It exposes the limits of Russian power, reveals the fragility of alliances, and marks the end of its dominance in a region it once considered untouchable. For Moscow, this isn’t just about a new railway, it is about losing the last remnants of post-Soviet control in the South Caucasus.

What does this have to do with Ukraine? I would agree with this argument this is one of the biggest geopolitical shifts in the region to happen in decades and it weakens Russia's position to a major degree even in the medium to near term. When you read in a history book about the consequences for an empire shattering itself in war, it reads like this...

Bayramov emphasized that regional conflicts have long deterred foreign direct investment (FDI) in the South Caucasus. With hostilities now at an end and normalization gaining traction, highlighted by the constructive tone of recent talks in Abu Dhabi, the region is poised to move forward.

“The end of the conflict removes a major obstacle to economic cooperation,” Bayramov added. “This creates a path for rebuilding trade relations and launching new joint infrastructure projects.”

One of the most anticipated outcomes of the peace process is the possible activation of the Zangezur Corridor, a transit route connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia. This corridor would not only enhance bilateral ties but also serve the broader strategy of transforming the South Caucasus into a key logistics hub on the Middle Corridor, which links Europe and Asia via the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.

“Peace will pave the way for the development of regional transport infrastructure, helping integrate the South Caucasus into global trade networks,” Bayramov explained. “It will support the expansion of transport hubs, raise state revenues, and create broader logistics opportunities.”

...

The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is more than a geopolitical breakthrough - it is a potential economic game-changer for the entire region. By reducing risks, restoring trust, and unlocking new corridors of cooperation, normalization could finally turn the South Caucasus from a zone of tension into a hub of opportunity. If sustained, this peace process could herald a new chapter not only for bilateral relations but also for economic growth, trade integration, and foreign investment across the wider region.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor


https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Turkey-bypasses-Russia-in-the-Caucasus-through-the-Zangezur-Corridor-63480.html

At that meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Yerevan effectively gave the green light to the “Turanian Way”, known as the “Zangezur Corridor”, one of Azerbaijan's main goals in the conflict with Armenia, declaring on behalf of the people that this prospect “does not constitute a problem”.

In recent days, many Turkish and Azerbaijani news outlets have reported, citing anonymous sources, that an agreement has been reached between Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the creation of the “corridor”, while at the same time there is talk of the demobilisation of Russian military bases in Armenia.

A meeting between Pašinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev is also expected to take place in Dubai in mid-July, thanks to the mediation of the United Arab Emirates, to reach a final assessment of the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, which has not yet been signed.


https://anewz.tv/region/south-caucasus/10773/first-freight-trains-from-china-to-turkiye-depart-via-the-middle-corridor/news

Two freight trains departed from the Chinese cities of Chongqing and Chengdu bound for Europe via Türkiye on the 9 July marking the first direct rail shipment under the new regular freight service along the Middle Corridor, according to the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure.

Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu described the development as the start of a “new era” in the East–West logistics chain and emphasised Türkiye’s strategic role on this route.


https://kyivinsider.com/leaked-agreement-on-zangezur-corridor-signals-russias-waning-grip-on-south-caucasus/

For now, the corridor remains a proposal. But its momentum signals a broader recalibration: Armenia and Azerbaijan are prioritizing economic access and Western engagement over Moscow’s traditional primacy. Washington and Brussels are likely watching closely, as the South Caucasus enters a new regional configuration—one where Russian influence is increasingly conditional, not assured.

Should this trilateral understanding be formalized, it will represent a striking reversal: two decades ago, such a strategic route would have required Kremlin blessing. Now, it may proceed despite Moscow’s disapproval—marking a historic turning point in the region’s geopolitical evolution.

-quote from article from July 2nd, this has now come to pass


https://www.arabnews.com/node/2608571/amp

As part of the ceasefire agreement brokered in November 2020, Armenia committed to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan proper and its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik Province. However, no progress has been made on implementing this pledge.

For Baku, the so-called Zangezur Corridor is a strategic priority. There is no direct land route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and access through Armenia would resolve this logistical challenge. Baku has consistently stated that it does not seek Armenian territory, but merely a secure transport link.

...

Russia, long the dominant powerbroker in the South Caucasus, has been largely sidelined in the current talks. This reflects Moscow’s diminishing influence, which stems from several factors: its overreach in Armenia, intervening in that country’s domestic affairs; recent tensions with Baku over the arrest of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia; and the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane over the North Caucasus earlier this year by Russian air defense missiles. Russia’s faltering war effort in Ukraine has further diminished its credibility across the region.


https://menafn.com/1109802059/South-Caucasus-In-Focus-Peace-Corridors-And-Competing-Powers

Since the end of the conflict and Armenian occupation of Garabagh, the first ever bilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Abu Dhabi in July 2025 marks a significant step forward in the search for a comprehensive peace agreement between the two South Caucasus neighbours. Facilitated under the diplomatic auspices of the United Arab Emirates, a rising mediator in global conflicts, the talks have generated cautious optimism among regional watchers and international stakeholders alike. Central to the discussions is the long-disputed Zangazur Corridor, a proposed transport route that has drawn in not only Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the United States, Russia, Iran, Türkiye, and the European Union.

At its core, the Zangazur Corridor represents more than a logistics route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. It is a strategic artery that could reshape connectivity across Eurasia, reinforce energy security for Europe, and redefine power alignments in the post-Soviet space. In Abu Dhabi, for the first time, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders discussed third-party management of the corridor, most notably, a US proposal to control the corridor for 100 years, a move that underscores Washington's growing interest in countering both Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus.

...

Nonetheless, the broader regional and global incentives for peace are strong. The South Caucasus stands at the intersection of multiple transport, energy, and communication projects that hinge on stability. Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a reliable energy partner and logistical hub; Armenia, though late to pivot, now sees the economic and political benefits of breaking out of its regional isolation. If the US and EU can synchronise their approaches, and if Iran and Russia are kept at bay diplomatically, a peace deal is achievable by early 2026, or perhaps even the end of 2025, but only if compromises are reached on the Zangazur Corridor and border recognition.


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The Russian air force recently dropped 250 glide bombs on a single treeline near Andriivka in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, potentially making that roughly 3-km-long copse the most bombed place on Earth at the time.

It didn’t help. The Russian regiments and brigades the air force was supporting with its intensive—some might say “insane”—aerial bombardment have been defeated and forced to withdraw from the area.

The Russian KAB glide bombs, which range 25 miles or farther under pop-out wings and satellite guidance, rained down as a trio of Russian units—the 22nd and 30th Motor Rifle Regiments and 40th Marine Brigade—were “really struggling near Kindrativka,” just outside Andriivka three miles south of the border with Russia, according to analyst Moklasen.

...

Shortly after drone-harried Ukrainian forces retreated from western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in mid-March, bringing to an abrupt end a controversial seven-month Ukrainian incursion, Russian units including the 22nd and 30th Motor Rifle Regiments and 40th Marine Brigade counterattacked—and crossed into Sumy.

But they counterattacked on foot, bringing with them virtually zero combat vehicles. While far from unusual as the Russians hold back their surviving armor, the Sumy operation underscored the risks that accompany infantry-first tactics.

...

Shrugging off the bombardment, mechanized Ukrainian troops flanked the de-mechanized Russians near Kindrativka last week. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy that could “complicate the enemy’s advance and threaten the encirclement of Russian troops operating in Andriivka.”

This in a nutshell is why Russia has such a big problem having exhausted all of its armor and even unarmored vehicles at a logistical scale. The media always wants to understand warfare as two action figures fighting from two different teams in a battle where they get mashed together and the stronger one wins. It is the marvel/superhero narrative, it is the narrative military arms companies want to sell about weapon systems like the F35 that are incomprehensibly expensive in TV commercials to the public.

Warfare is spatial however, it includes context, in general the media can only see warfare as "Tank vs AI Drone = Tank Lose" and that is where the analysis stops, but understand that no matter how the calculus of that equation changes the actual process of war is about maneuver, about placing your forces in places that existentially threaten the enemy forces and then going to battle when the enemy tries to deny your maneuver.

Without armor, you cannot maneuver. This doesn't just place your forces at existential risk when they are on the offensive, it places your forces at risk no matter WHAT they are doing because they can easily be flanked and encircled by mechanized forces of a much smaller number as this quoted example illustrates.

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Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 18.07.25 (орієнтовно)

#NOMERCY #stoprussia

| Підписатися ГШ ЗСУ |
t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/26773

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Despite the leadership of Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ), the largest defense conglomerate in Poland, expressing doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) use 4,000 to 9,000 rounds per day, this does not change the fact that Poland is indeed expanding ammunition production. Moreover, they are doing so based on strategic approaches.

In particular, in an interview with the Polish publication Money, where the doubt was expressed, PGZ Vice President Arkadiusz Bąk explained how PGZ plans to implement a rather ambitious plan to increase the production of 155mm ammunition ninefold — from the current 20,000 large-caliber shells per year to 150,000–180,000 units annually.

From a previous article

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/polish_defense_ministry_and_top_arms_maker_dont_believe_ukraine_spends_40009000_artillery_shells_a_day-15154.html

Bąk stated that PGZ plans to produce between 150,000 and 180,000 units of 155mm ammunition annually — roughly 12,500 to 15,000 shells per month. These will be modern, base-bleed extended-range shells capable of reaching targets at 40 kilometers.

However, when asked whether such figures are sufficient — given that Ukraine is reported to be using between 4,000 and 6,000 155mm shells per day, and up to 9,000 during intensified combat — Bąk dismissed these numbers as "significantly inflated."

"If one were to calculate how many howitzers each [side] has and their so-called service life, meaning the number of shots they can fire, it would turn out that all of them would need to be repaired every week. These numbers are significantly inflated, as are all wartime data. The data we receive from our military, which is verifiable through access to the source, is difficult to correlate with Ukrainian military information, or even journalistic information," Bąk said.

This is bitterly funny, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine inflated it's numbers somewhat (then again I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't) but I don't think they are off an order of magnitude here or anything, I think Ukraine has more artillery than it is letting on and it is firing as absolutely many shells as it can. I think Polish military personnel might be rudely surprised if they hung out around a Ukrainian artillery battery for awhile, or rode in a self propelled artillery vehicle for a couple of days observing firing missions...

According to Defense Express, based on verified data publicly shared during the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi's report on August 20, 2024, Ukraine had been using on average 14,600 artillery shells, and Russia used 44,500 shells daily as of the summer of 2024.

Even considering that a significant portion of these were indeed Soviet-made shells (not just 152mm but also 122mm), it is clear that Ukraine's defense forces had been using at least thousands of 155mm shells daily, even a year ago.

https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-poland-questions-ukraines-4000-9000-artillery-shells-per-day?amp

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By naming Yulia Svyrydenko, the former economy minister, to become the country’s first new head of government since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Zelenskyy on Thursday elevated a loyal politician who has experience in diplomacy with the U.S. and other Western nations.

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It's easy (and fun) to dismiss Medvedev as a ranting drunk, but - his role as the most insane mouthpiece that's formally within their gov't has a purpose. He is the barking attack dog, meant to make Putin look like a sober statesman by comparison. At a personal level, Medvedev is also trying to stay alive in a petromafia dictatorship by voicing homicidal support for the boss, and minimizing his own potential as a rival replacment that might threaten Poots.

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Another video talking about the Aero Shark Electronics Warfare and Surveillance aircraft.

The development of this kind of platform extends far past war, from an abstracted perspective of a mechanized military as a series of different sized sensor platforms in differing number and vulnerability, there is a gap in sensor platforms precisely the size of an Aero Shark ultralight aircraft.

https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/09/ultra-surveillance-dro

I sure hope we have been sharing these with Ukraine and we just didn't hear about it because it was part of a classified program

That gap is even larger for search and rescue, large high resolution surveys with high fidelity scientific instruments, wildfire monitoring and disaster response in general.

The military industrial complex of the west NEEDS the future to be F35s and incredibly expensive missile systems requiring parades full of defense contractors to even construct a single one, but it is precisely for that reason that this vision of peace and the future will never be for you or me.

The Aero Shark? Yeah I can totally see a future manned/unmanned version of these finding a person overboard from a ship simply because it was able to loiter for so long while being able to cover large distances safely at relatively low altitude. I can totally see these becoming the aircraft you see above natural disasters zones all over the world as a symbol to people in desperate situations that people can see the state they are in and are coming to help.

I can see a future where Ukraine leads the world in innovating at the leading edge of disaster response and lifesaving technology, where "Ukraine" becomes synonymous with "Advanced Emergency Response" like "German" is with "Precision Engineering".

Does this say "Don't worry you are going to be ok!" to you?

To simply say "No" is an understatement of tragic size, but even an unmanned military grey version of the Shark does. It look like something designed with joy being repurposed to save lives and bring peace, which means it is part of the most fearsome category of weapons.

The U.S. military tried to temporarily? privatize their ISR with a measly 6 business jets aircraft for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) that were supposed to replace a huge fleet of turboprop aicraft they already got rid of and honestly I can't think of a more fitting metaphor for how my country has lost its way....

https://www.twz.com/air/army-to-retire-all-of-its-turboprop-surveillance-planes-by-the-end-of-the-year

I hope some of those "obsolete" dual turboprop ISR aircraft made it to Ukraine through some clandestine network of defense aid packages... I am guessing the US military primarily gave them to police departments and ICE type agencies however.

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Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 17.07.25 (орієнтовно)

#NOMERCY #stoprussia

| Підписатися ГШ ЗСУ |
t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/26740

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This will enable Ukrainians to call, text and use their mobile data from Ukrainian phone numbers in the 27 EU countries at no extra cost, and extend the same benefits to end users from the EU who may be in Ukraine.

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Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 16.07.25 (орієнтовно)

#NOMERCY #stoprussia

| Підписатися ГШ ЗСУ |
t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/26701

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Video covering recent Ukraine war news. Of particular note for my artillery rant is the artillery crew saying they were firing 50 shells per day per cannon in support of friendly Ukrainian counter attacking troops... that is a LOT of firepower!

(10:25 timestamp)

I love that they got footage with the reporter there with the artillery firing in a downpour, it really does show in such a visceral direct way that the power of cannon artillery cannot be denied even in this day and age... perhaps more so in this day and age with the capacity to get such good intelligence and reconnaissance with UAVs and other modern technologies that can provide a high volume weapons system like a 105mm, 155mm or similar howitzer (msta-b in video) an endless list of targets.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/152_mm_howitzer_2A65_Msta-B

Understand that at the most intense flashpoints of battle, especially in a counter attack, casualties are a given to some degree. What this kind of artillery and sufficient artillery ammunition allows Ukraine to do is use an overwhelming volume of artillery fire to suppress, disorganize and demoralize the enemy, then smoke shells can be fired to cover the advancing friendly forces. The impact of artillery doing this on saving the lives of Ukrainian infantry and armor crews who are actually given the responsibility to break the enemy at their most vital point that they will defend most brutally... it isn't really something you can put into words.

Every time one of those guns fires it is potentially saving many Ukrainian lives by making it so Ukrainian infantry can decisively take territory without encountering fresh, organized, entrenched resistance that will punish every mistake and blindspot in the Ukrainian counter attack.

A similar point can also can be said for delaying actions, in order to hold back a massive offensive like Russia is conducting, Ukraine has to accept a moderate temporary loss of territory as a given, and build a strategy around what is called "delaying actions" where you punish the enemy maximally in time and in manpower lost for every meter they gain.

In order to do this in a way that best keeps the defending troops alive however, Ukraine really needs overwhelming artillery support so that a barrage of artillery laid down along the periphery of a defensive position can create the operational space to stage a retreat of troops from said defensive position without being fatally exposed or overrun before they can act.

I hope my country continues to supply artillery ammunition, but I am glad Ukraine now has multiple international partners to ensure they can't have this capability cut off from them.

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