edit inspired by this post
https://www.rfunews.com/articles/russia-faces-historic-strategic-defeat-in-the-caucasus

Overall, the Zangezur corridor is more than an infrastructure project; it is a strategic defeat for Russia. It exposes the limits of Russian power, reveals the fragility of alliances, and marks the end of its dominance in a region it once considered untouchable. For Moscow, this isn’t just about a new railway, it is about losing the last remnants of post-Soviet control in the South Caucasus.
What does this have to do with Ukraine? I would agree with this argument this is one of the biggest geopolitical shifts in the region to happen in decades and it weakens Russia's position to a major degree even in the medium to near term. When you read in a history book about the consequences for an empire shattering itself in war, it reads like this...
Bayramov emphasized that regional conflicts have long deterred foreign direct investment (FDI) in the South Caucasus. With hostilities now at an end and normalization gaining traction, highlighted by the constructive tone of recent talks in Abu Dhabi, the region is poised to move forward.
“The end of the conflict removes a major obstacle to economic cooperation,” Bayramov added. “This creates a path for rebuilding trade relations and launching new joint infrastructure projects.”
One of the most anticipated outcomes of the peace process is the possible activation of the Zangezur Corridor, a transit route connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia. This corridor would not only enhance bilateral ties but also serve the broader strategy of transforming the South Caucasus into a key logistics hub on the Middle Corridor, which links Europe and Asia via the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
“Peace will pave the way for the development of regional transport infrastructure, helping integrate the South Caucasus into global trade networks,” Bayramov explained. “It will support the expansion of transport hubs, raise state revenues, and create broader logistics opportunities.”
...
The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is more than a geopolitical breakthrough - it is a potential economic game-changer for the entire region. By reducing risks, restoring trust, and unlocking new corridors of cooperation, normalization could finally turn the South Caucasus from a zone of tension into a hub of opportunity. If sustained, this peace process could herald a new chapter not only for bilateral relations but also for economic growth, trade integration, and foreign investment across the wider region.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Turkey-bypasses-Russia-in-the-Caucasus-through-the-Zangezur-Corridor-63480.html
At that meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Yerevan effectively gave the green light to the “Turanian Way”, known as the “Zangezur Corridor”, one of Azerbaijan's main goals in the conflict with Armenia, declaring on behalf of the people that this prospect “does not constitute a problem”.
In recent days, many Turkish and Azerbaijani news outlets have reported, citing anonymous sources, that an agreement has been reached between Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the creation of the “corridor”, while at the same time there is talk of the demobilisation of Russian military bases in Armenia.
A meeting between Pašinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev is also expected to take place in Dubai in mid-July, thanks to the mediation of the United Arab Emirates, to reach a final assessment of the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, which has not yet been signed.
https://anewz.tv/region/south-caucasus/10773/first-freight-trains-from-china-to-turkiye-depart-via-the-middle-corridor/news
Two freight trains departed from the Chinese cities of Chongqing and Chengdu bound for Europe via Türkiye on the 9 July marking the first direct rail shipment under the new regular freight service along the Middle Corridor, according to the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure.
Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu described the development as the start of a “new era” in the East–West logistics chain and emphasised Türkiye’s strategic role on this route.
https://kyivinsider.com/leaked-agreement-on-zangezur-corridor-signals-russias-waning-grip-on-south-caucasus/

For now, the corridor remains a proposal. But its momentum signals a broader recalibration: Armenia and Azerbaijan are prioritizing economic access and Western engagement over Moscow’s traditional primacy. Washington and Brussels are likely watching closely, as the South Caucasus enters a new regional configuration—one where Russian influence is increasingly conditional, not assured.
Should this trilateral understanding be formalized, it will represent a striking reversal: two decades ago, such a strategic route would have required Kremlin blessing. Now, it may proceed despite Moscow’s disapproval—marking a historic turning point in the region’s geopolitical evolution.
-quote from article from July 2nd, this has now come to pass
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2608571/amp
As part of the ceasefire agreement brokered in November 2020, Armenia committed to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan proper and its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik Province. However, no progress has been made on implementing this pledge.
For Baku, the so-called Zangezur Corridor is a strategic priority. There is no direct land route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and access through Armenia would resolve this logistical challenge. Baku has consistently stated that it does not seek Armenian territory, but merely a secure transport link.
...
Russia, long the dominant powerbroker in the South Caucasus, has been largely sidelined in the current talks. This reflects Moscow’s diminishing influence, which stems from several factors: its overreach in Armenia, intervening in that country’s domestic affairs; recent tensions with Baku over the arrest of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia; and the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane over the North Caucasus earlier this year by Russian air defense missiles. Russia’s faltering war effort in Ukraine has further diminished its credibility across the region.
https://menafn.com/1109802059/South-Caucasus-In-Focus-Peace-Corridors-And-Competing-Powers
Since the end of the conflict and Armenian occupation of Garabagh, the first ever bilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Abu Dhabi in July 2025 marks a significant step forward in the search for a comprehensive peace agreement between the two South Caucasus neighbours. Facilitated under the diplomatic auspices of the United Arab Emirates, a rising mediator in global conflicts, the talks have generated cautious optimism among regional watchers and international stakeholders alike. Central to the discussions is the long-disputed Zangazur Corridor, a proposed transport route that has drawn in not only Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the United States, Russia, Iran, Türkiye, and the European Union.
At its core, the Zangazur Corridor represents more than a logistics route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. It is a strategic artery that could reshape connectivity across Eurasia, reinforce energy security for Europe, and redefine power alignments in the post-Soviet space. In Abu Dhabi, for the first time, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders discussed third-party management of the corridor, most notably, a US proposal to control the corridor for 100 years, a move that underscores Washington's growing interest in countering both Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus.
...
Nonetheless, the broader regional and global incentives for peace are strong. The South Caucasus stands at the intersection of multiple transport, energy, and communication projects that hinge on stability. Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a reliable energy partner and logistical hub; Armenia, though late to pivot, now sees the economic and political benefits of breaking out of its regional isolation. If the US and EU can synchronise their approaches, and if Iran and Russia are kept at bay diplomatically, a peace deal is achievable by early 2026, or perhaps even the end of 2025, but only if compromises are reached on the Zangazur Corridor and border recognition.