Ukraine

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Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 20.07.25 (орієнтовно)

#NOMERCY #stoprussia

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edit 2 ok so only 5 so far, but 5 modernized abrams is still a LOT when properly supported, hopefully this delivery will change the tune about more tanks being donated to Ukraine, Ukraine is entering a localized high intensity counter attack stage of the war which tanks are critical for.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/australia-delivers-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-approximately-47-million-military-aid-package-10023

Earlier, it was reported that Australia began sending 49 refurbished M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine after obtaining US export approval, overcoming concerns related to maintenance and battlefield suitability.

edit sorry I missed someone had already posted this, I can delete although I really do want to stress the headline I wrote to everyone....'

Now that Ukraine has sufficient artillery to field main battle tanks, I would not be so sure if I was Russia that these Abrams tanks are not going to be terrifying on the battlefield. Literally all the news I see that I have access to as a normal english speaker seems to portray the Abrams as obsolete and ineffective in Ukraine and it is really really REALLY obvious propaganda and just general western brain worms around AI and drones.

No, several dozen Abrams tanks with sufficient artillery support are a Russian soldier's nightmare, especially at night.

The narratives around the Abrams in Ukraine are exhausting and weirdly twisted, most of the articles seem to emphasize all of the abrams tanks given to Ukraine have been destroyed as if that was evidence they are obsolete. I think that is an absurd framing however as 1.) They are a strategic target for Russia as destroying them is essential PR for Russia. 2.) Tanks get destroyed, especially when you are holding back an incomprehensibly big offensive 3.) the Abrams given to Ukraine were the shittiest, least updated Abrams tanks possible with no critical modifications or updates...

Yes, the Abrams tanks given to Ukraine were woefully underequipped and these are machines that take years to learn how to operate with a highly trained crew on, but the fact of the matter is we have not yet seen what the Abrams can REALLY do in Ukraine so any journalists who are actual journalists should hold their tongue and wait and see what happens. ...which is not something I would do if I was a Russian and heard an Abrams coming.... I would run...

Don't take my word for it, look up US armored maneuver doctrine and it will become immediately apparent the idea of fielding Abrams tanks without sufficient artillery (or uncontested air support) is at a basic level absurd. It was being set up to fail. Now is different.

Also, from a political and strategic stand point Russia will be forced to hold on reserve more tanks the more tanks Ukraine has. This is because while most of the time main battle tanks are destroyed by other weapons on the battlefield, if Ukraine counter attacks and places Russia in a seriously compromised position, Russia will need a large amount of main battle tanks to maneuver in response to stop a threatening mechanized assault force penetrating deep into Russia. Of course, the tanks Russia are building right now are T-90m tanks which an even remotely modern Abrams tank will eat for lunch especially at night (nightlunch?) but from a PR and strategic planning standpoint Russia need tanks to address this still very remote (becoming less so every moment) threat and even now Russia is having to pay the cost for that by holding back tanks it could otherwise use to support soldiers and increase the speed of territory gained in their catastrophically failed offensive.

No... Ukraine getting these Abrams is huge news, I don't care if the mainstream media is unconvinced, they don't know what they are talking about either by design or by lack of competence.

This screenshot summarizing recent events at the front demonstrates a Russian mechanized tactical breakthrough and a reactionary Ukrainian mechanized response force mobilizing from the interior of Ukrainian territory. Since this was done on a previously inactive part of the front it is unlikely Ukraine would have had Abrams in the area even in the event they had them, but this kind of "tank destroyer" roles are exactly the kind of thing main battle tanks are devastatingly effective at countering. You do NOT want to be a russian tank crew or mechanized infantry riding in a BMP hurtling deep through enemy territory and run full tilt into an Abrams tank.....

https://www.rfunews.com/articles/russian-columns-storm-new-northern-front

Abrams Round 2

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zAy3PdcQRT8

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qXmyEmQrllY

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GKotQyhlmos

Demonstration of abrams tanks firing in a target rich training exercise. Notice the surpisingly fast reversals and also how a tank will scooch up over the hill a bit before firing, from the perspective of the target which may be 1km away, the tank is peeking up and then reversing back under the rise of the hill. After firing a tank will usually reposition and peek from a slightly different position forcing AT or hostile tanks to readjust aim.

Something that is a fatal flaw of all Russian tanks being fielded in any significant number currently is that they have a very slow reverse gear which means they functionally cannot do this basic fire and reverse manuever, which severly hampers the effectiveness of every use of the tank other than suicidal front on charge. Did I mention the autoloaders in Russian tanks generally are not nearly well protected enough to actually survive tank combat without cooking off and blowing the turret off?

If performed correctly this basic firing tactic involves reversing the tank just enough so that the vertical drop disappears the tank turret behind cover again after firing. Again, Russian tanks aren't designed to do this quickly, which is kind of insane if you think about it.

https://armypubs.army.mil/ProductMaps/PubForm/Details.aspx?PUB_ID=1031408

reversing quickly is a basic necessity for an effective modern main battle tank

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/05/28/t90-tank-failures-ukraine-combat-analysis/

A rundown of the issues with the T90m tank, I don't agree with everything on this blog, but this is a fundamentally sound and thorough analysis.

https://offbeatresearch.com/2024/01/an-offbeat-research-guide-to-tank-spotting-soviet-origin-tanks/

A good rundown smallwarjournals cites for Russian tanks and their weaknesses.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lEdO93OLSh4

While the U.S. and NATO allies are working to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot batteries, there aren't enough for everyone who ordered them.

Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 19.07.25 (орієнтовно)

#NOMERCY #stoprussia

| Підписатися ГШ ЗСУ |
t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/26809

edit inspired by this post

https://www.rfunews.com/articles/russia-faces-historic-strategic-defeat-in-the-caucasus

Overall, the Zangezur corridor is more than an infrastructure project; it is a strategic defeat for Russia. It exposes the limits of Russian power, reveals the fragility of alliances, and marks the end of its dominance in a region it once considered untouchable. For Moscow, this isn’t just about a new railway, it is about losing the last remnants of post-Soviet control in the South Caucasus.

What does this have to do with Ukraine? I would agree with this argument this is one of the biggest geopolitical shifts in the region to happen in decades and it weakens Russia's position to a major degree even in the medium to near term. When you read in a history book about the consequences for an empire shattering itself in war, it reads like this...

Bayramov emphasized that regional conflicts have long deterred foreign direct investment (FDI) in the South Caucasus. With hostilities now at an end and normalization gaining traction, highlighted by the constructive tone of recent talks in Abu Dhabi, the region is poised to move forward.

“The end of the conflict removes a major obstacle to economic cooperation,” Bayramov added. “This creates a path for rebuilding trade relations and launching new joint infrastructure projects.”

One of the most anticipated outcomes of the peace process is the possible activation of the Zangezur Corridor, a transit route connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia. This corridor would not only enhance bilateral ties but also serve the broader strategy of transforming the South Caucasus into a key logistics hub on the Middle Corridor, which links Europe and Asia via the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.

“Peace will pave the way for the development of regional transport infrastructure, helping integrate the South Caucasus into global trade networks,” Bayramov explained. “It will support the expansion of transport hubs, raise state revenues, and create broader logistics opportunities.”

...

The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is more than a geopolitical breakthrough - it is a potential economic game-changer for the entire region. By reducing risks, restoring trust, and unlocking new corridors of cooperation, normalization could finally turn the South Caucasus from a zone of tension into a hub of opportunity. If sustained, this peace process could herald a new chapter not only for bilateral relations but also for economic growth, trade integration, and foreign investment across the wider region.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Turkey-bypasses-Russia-in-the-Caucasus-through-the-Zangezur-Corridor-63480.html

At that meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Yerevan effectively gave the green light to the “Turanian Way”, known as the “Zangezur Corridor”, one of Azerbaijan's main goals in the conflict with Armenia, declaring on behalf of the people that this prospect “does not constitute a problem”.

In recent days, many Turkish and Azerbaijani news outlets have reported, citing anonymous sources, that an agreement has been reached between Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the creation of the “corridor”, while at the same time there is talk of the demobilisation of Russian military bases in Armenia.

A meeting between Pašinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev is also expected to take place in Dubai in mid-July, thanks to the mediation of the United Arab Emirates, to reach a final assessment of the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, which has not yet been signed.

https://anewz.tv/region/south-caucasus/10773/first-freight-trains-from-china-to-turkiye-depart-via-the-middle-corridor/news

Two freight trains departed from the Chinese cities of Chongqing and Chengdu bound for Europe via Türkiye on the 9 July marking the first direct rail shipment under the new regular freight service along the Middle Corridor, according to the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure.

Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu described the development as the start of a “new era” in the East–West logistics chain and emphasised Türkiye’s strategic role on this route.

https://kyivinsider.com/leaked-agreement-on-zangezur-corridor-signals-russias-waning-grip-on-south-caucasus/

For now, the corridor remains a proposal. But its momentum signals a broader recalibration: Armenia and Azerbaijan are prioritizing economic access and Western engagement over Moscow’s traditional primacy. Washington and Brussels are likely watching closely, as the South Caucasus enters a new regional configuration—one where Russian influence is increasingly conditional, not assured.

Should this trilateral understanding be formalized, it will represent a striking reversal: two decades ago, such a strategic route would have required Kremlin blessing. Now, it may proceed despite Moscow’s disapproval—marking a historic turning point in the region’s geopolitical evolution.

-quote from article from July 2nd, this has now come to pass

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2608571/amp

As part of the ceasefire agreement brokered in November 2020, Armenia committed to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan proper and its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik Province. However, no progress has been made on implementing this pledge.

For Baku, the so-called Zangezur Corridor is a strategic priority. There is no direct land route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and access through Armenia would resolve this logistical challenge. Baku has consistently stated that it does not seek Armenian territory, but merely a secure transport link.

...

Russia, long the dominant powerbroker in the South Caucasus, has been largely sidelined in the current talks. This reflects Moscow’s diminishing influence, which stems from several factors: its overreach in Armenia, intervening in that country’s domestic affairs; recent tensions with Baku over the arrest of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia; and the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane over the North Caucasus earlier this year by Russian air defense missiles. Russia’s faltering war effort in Ukraine has further diminished its credibility across the region.

https://menafn.com/1109802059/South-Caucasus-In-Focus-Peace-Corridors-And-Competing-Powers

Since the end of the conflict and Armenian occupation of Garabagh, the first ever bilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Abu Dhabi in July 2025 marks a significant step forward in the search for a comprehensive peace agreement between the two South Caucasus neighbours. Facilitated under the diplomatic auspices of the United Arab Emirates, a rising mediator in global conflicts, the talks have generated cautious optimism among regional watchers and international stakeholders alike. Central to the discussions is the long-disputed Zangazur Corridor, a proposed transport route that has drawn in not only Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the United States, Russia, Iran, Türkiye, and the European Union.

At its core, the Zangazur Corridor represents more than a logistics route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. It is a strategic artery that could reshape connectivity across Eurasia, reinforce energy security for Europe, and redefine power alignments in the post-Soviet space. In Abu Dhabi, for the first time, the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders discussed third-party management of the corridor, most notably, a US proposal to control the corridor for 100 years, a move that underscores Washington's growing interest in countering both Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus.

...

Nonetheless, the broader regional and global incentives for peace are strong. The South Caucasus stands at the intersection of multiple transport, energy, and communication projects that hinge on stability. Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a reliable energy partner and logistical hub; Armenia, though late to pivot, now sees the economic and political benefits of breaking out of its regional isolation. If the US and EU can synchronise their approaches, and if Iran and Russia are kept at bay diplomatically, a peace deal is achievable by early 2026, or perhaps even the end of 2025, but only if compromises are reached on the Zangazur Corridor and border recognition.

The Russian air force recently dropped 250 glide bombs on a single treeline near Andriivka in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, potentially making that roughly 3-km-long copse the most bombed place on Earth at the time.

It didn’t help. The Russian regiments and brigades the air force was supporting with its intensive—some might say “insane”—aerial bombardment have been defeated and forced to withdraw from the area.

The Russian KAB glide bombs, which range 25 miles or farther under pop-out wings and satellite guidance, rained down as a trio of Russian units—the 22nd and 30th Motor Rifle Regiments and 40th Marine Brigade—were “really struggling near Kindrativka,” just outside Andriivka three miles south of the border with Russia, according to analyst Moklasen.

...

Shortly after drone-harried Ukrainian forces retreated from western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in mid-March, bringing to an abrupt end a controversial seven-month Ukrainian incursion, Russian units including the 22nd and 30th Motor Rifle Regiments and 40th Marine Brigade counterattacked—and crossed into Sumy.

But they counterattacked on foot, bringing with them virtually zero combat vehicles. While far from unusual as the Russians hold back their surviving armor, the Sumy operation underscored the risks that accompany infantry-first tactics.

...

Shrugging off the bombardment, mechanized Ukrainian troops flanked the de-mechanized Russians near Kindrativka last week. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy that could “complicate the enemy’s advance and threaten the encirclement of Russian troops operating in Andriivka.”

This in a nutshell is why Russia has such a big problem having exhausted all of its armor and even unarmored vehicles at a logistical scale. The media always wants to understand warfare as two action figures fighting from two different teams in a battle where they get mashed together and the stronger one wins. It is the marvel/superhero narrative, it is the narrative military arms companies want to sell about weapon systems like the F35 that are incomprehensibly expensive in TV commercials to the public.

Warfare is spatial however, it includes context, in general the media can only see warfare as "Tank vs AI Drone = Tank Lose" and that is where the analysis stops, but understand that no matter how the calculus of that equation changes the actual process of war is about maneuver, about placing your forces in places that existentially threaten the enemy forces and then going to battle when the enemy tries to deny your maneuver.

Without armor, you cannot maneuver. This doesn't just place your forces at existential risk when they are on the offensive, it places your forces at risk no matter WHAT they are doing because they can easily be flanked and encircled by mechanized forces of a much smaller number as this quoted example illustrates.