NFL

Just thought it was an interesting stat in almost four full seasons, every win has been closely competitive where a team was within 1-2 scores. Has any other team endured a stretch where they didn't beat a team by 3 scores or more for this long?

I don't think teams tank as much they are claimed to do so, probably because it is not as beneficial of a strategy as one might think.

Let me first define what I mean by "tanking." Tanking in this context means deliberately losing on purpose to get the best possible draft pick. I do NOT consider tanking to be the same thing as a rebuild, where you do not expect to get good enough value for the salary, and so you trade away assets or simply let them walk in order to bring in younger and cheaper talent to develop. In doing so, you accept poorer performance along the way until you can develop that talent. When I ask about tanking I'm asking if teams not only do that, but also lose on purpose to improve their draft position.

First, research has shown that "top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research." The basic reason is that there is a salary cap. No one can outspend any one else, and so you have to extract as much value for a fixed amount of money as possible. Top draft picks are better players than later picks, but they also command much higher salaries that tend to overcompensate them relative to others. The best value performance combo actually peaks in the LATE first round, and all picks after the first overall are on average better value until the early third round.

https://d3i71xaburhd42.cloudfront.net/61bbf4dd4aeb2e915f631832dc890f92a9a0c12c/58-FigureIV-1.png

source: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1657

This has been dubbed "the loser's curse" because bad teams tend to pick good players but pay them too much, they cannot pay sufficient talent elsewhere on the field, and the team continues to perform poorly. And when you remove QBs from the calculation, this phenomenon becomes even more pronounced, because QBs are such high value and tend to be more reliable performers.

https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/moo.png

source: https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/

So it's better to just be mediocre or even good but not great. With the exception of an elite QB propsect, losing on purpose to go as high as possible in the draft is clearly a bad strategy because you are probably going to overpay. Even if there is an elite QB, the hype around that prospect could improve that player's negotiating position for him to demand more salary from you, increasing the risk of overpay.

Second, there is a cost to tanking. We as fans are only looking at the team as a whole. It may help the team to get a (nominally) better draft position by losing. But a team is composed of individual professional players and coaches, all of whom hope to continued to be employed as such. Losing winnable games certainly does not aid them in this pursuit. Even if losing on purpose was a good strategy, is it actually possible to get players to follow it, since it requires them to play worse deliberately, or frustrate the efforts of those who still play well? And how do you develop and maintain a winning culture and attitude while losing on purpose? Tanking is likely to cause you to alienate and waste the development of current talent, and fail to attract better talent from elsewhere in the league - all in favor of gaining an uncertain and likely to be overpaid draft pick.

Finally, I'm aware of only one situation in which someone inside an organization explicitly claimed that there was an aim to lose on purpose - Brian Flores's lawsuit, in which he claimed the Dolphins owner offered to pay him to lose. I don't know if these allegations were ever proven, but if true they are still illustrative - Brian Flores was so insulted by this offer he started a lawsuit (among other reasons). Deliberately losing is anathema to every single person who has poured a lifetime of blood, sweat, and tears into being a professional coach or player. I don't think enough players or coaches would accept it to begin with, simply because they are too disgusted by the idea.

In conclusion, I think the popular beliefs that this or that team are tanking derives from the disbelief that a team can really be as bad as it is. The truth is it's very difficult to win professional football games, so hard that some pros look like they are doing it on purpose. Especially because we love to be armchair QBs, HCs, and GMs, who think we know what a team should do, when in fact the vast majority of fans simply have no idea what they are talking about. And for fans of a specific bad team, it is copium. It makes you feel better to think your team has a strategy, when in fact they just suck this year, and may suck for the foreseeable future.

TL;DR - Although teams of course do rebuild, I don't think teams really tank, with perhaps rare exception of which I am not aware. It's questionable whether tanking actually works, and I don't think it's likely you'll get the players and coaches to actually sign on for a tanking campaign.

Additionally they have rostered the 2011 2nd overall, 2014 2nd overall pick, and 2018 1st overall pick. Does this mean anything significant? No but it’s interesting nonetheless I don’t think any other team has rostered this many top picks.

Pundits and fans are buzzing about the NFL levying a seemingly high number of fines for things like Unsportsmanlike Conduct and Helmet-to-Helmet hits on players this season. But are players actually getting fined more in 2023 than in the past? The answer is YES - in 2023 the NFL is projected to more than double the previous record number of fines levied on players in a season.

Excluding off-field fines (Missed Workouts, Detrimental Conduct, Personal Messages, and Off-Field Violations), the NFL is on pace for 524 on-field player fines over the full 2023 season. This would be 2.2X the previous record for the number on-field fines against players for on-field infractions:

Raw Data Source: Spotrac. Projected using a super sophisticated (18 weeks in a season / 8 weeks of data) multiplier

The sharp rise in the rate at which the NFL is fining players for on-field infractions in 2023 is also apparent in the actual value of on-field fines accrued. Even after adjusting for inflation or adjusting for changes in the NFL salary cap (which has outpaced inflation), players are set to lose the most money they have ever lost to player fines in 2023 at $7.6m:

Raw Data Source: Spotrac; FRED for Annualized US Urban CPI. *Projected using a super sophisticated (18 weeks in a season / 8 weeks of data) multiplier

The total number of on-field fines levied on players varies substantially across the 20+ years of actual data available . The Pittsburgh Steelers stand out - their 168 on-field player fines as a franchise are 64 higher than the second-place Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans (104 each). The Los Angeles Chargers have the least fines against players over the available data at just 51 on-field player fines.

Raw Data Source: Spotrac.

Now for the fun part - a look at the players and teams that have set records for fines. Odell Beckham Jr., Deshaun Watson, Ndamukong Suh, and Robaire Smith all have earned distinguished NFL fine achievements in their times in the NFL. For teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns have out-penalized the competition to set records for the number and amount of fines their players have racked up since 2002. Unsportsmanlike Conduct remains the #1 fine levied against players, though Roughing the Passer (459 fines levied) will likely catch up in the next season or two.

Raw Data Source: Spotrac

TLDR: 2023 is going to be a blockbuster revenue year for the Professional Athletes Foundation and the NFL Foundation, the charities that are on the receiving end of all NFL player fines collected. The good news for NFL players is that they get to max out their charitable tax deduction this year.

Note: I found and corrected a few errors in the Spotrac NFL player fine database, so it is highly likely that a few more escaped me. It is also likely that I introduced my own errors.

I was talking to a friend of mine and we got into the discussion of the importance of O-Lines. I'm of the opinion that an amazing top-5 O-Line props up nearly any QB enough to be a great QB. He's of the opinion an amazing top-5 QB helps inflate O-Line stats.

Who is right - or is it a little of both?

I went through all 32 teams and I could only confidently pick 6 teams. I also thought about a 5 year outlook and could still only come up with 11 teams. What are the teams that you guys feel confident will have the same starting QB in 2033 as they did in 2023?

My teams were

Bills Bengals Eagles Chargers Texans Jaguars Chiefs

This has been discussed before, but with the recent news regarding Belicheck being possibly fired (which blows my mind) and Josh McDaniels getting fired (again), it bears repeating.

Bill Belicheck - he's 87-97 after Tom Brady left.

Charlie Weis - he went 35-27 as the head coach of Notre Dame and 6-22 at Kansas in college after leaving NE. His one year as Florida's offensive coordinator in 2010 his offense was 102nd.

Josh McDaniels - He went 11-17 as head coach of the Broncos, and 20-33 as head coach of the Raiders after he left NE.

Bill O'Brien - He went 15-9 as Penn State's head coach, then 52-48 as Houston Texans' head coach after leaving NE. He did make it the college national championship game with Alabama in 2021 but lost to Georgia.

Romeo Crennel - yes, he's on the defensive side. However, he went 24-40 as Cleveland's head coach after leaving New England, then went 4-15 as Kansas City's head coach and 4-8 as Houston Texans' head coach.

Eric Mangini - yes, another defensive guy. However, he went 23-25 as the Jets' head coach after leaving New England and then 10-22 as the Brown's head coach.

We're on the backend of the season, /r/NFL! We have another game in Germany this week and it looks like it'll be a bargain bin game compared to last week's. The byes are fours teams this week, meaning two less games to watch. I had a great Week 9, going 12-2 and bringing me to 91-45 on the season. How did everyone else do? We only have two division games this week with four inter-conference and eight cross-conference games lined up. Let's get to it!

Byes: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Eagles

Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!

Ken Dorsey, Bills Offensive Coordinator (Age: 42)

Ken Dorsey is in his second season coordinating the Bills’ offense after taking over for the departed Brian Daboll, and Buffalo has maintained its characteristic dominance, finishing with the 2nd-ranked total offense in 2022 and on track to finish with a top-5 total offense in 2023. Prior to his promotion to coordinator, Dorsey spent three seasons as Josh Allen’s quarterbacks coach, playing a major role in Allen’s development from an inconsistent starter to a dominant force in the league. Before joining the Bills, Dorsey was Cam Newton’s quarterbacks coach in Carolina for five seasons, including his MVP 2015 season, and he played for five seasons as a backup quarterback.

Jim Harbaugh, University of Michigan Head Coach (Age: 60)

Jim Harbaugh is in his ninth season as head coach at Michigan, and it might be his best, as the Wolverines are currently 9-0 and have averaged over 40 points per game on offense. Harbaugh has turned Michigan from a middling team in the Big Ten to a national powerhouse, producing star NFL talent such as Rashan Gary and Aidan Hutchinson as well as starting NFL offensive linemen including Michael Onwenu and Graham Glasgow. Prior to becoming a head coach at Michigan, Harbaugh coached the 49ers for four years to a 44-19-1 record with a Super Bowl run, and he engineered a successful turnaround as Stanford’s head coach from 2007 to 2010. Harbaugh played quarterback for 14 seasons in the NFL, and his brother John Harbaugh is currently in his sixteenth season as head coach of the Ravens.

Ben Johnson, Lions Offensive Coordinator (Age: 37)

Ben Johnson is in his second season as the Lions’ offensive coordinator and the turnaround has been swift, as the Lions went from a bottom-tier offense and a 3-13-1 record the year before Johnson took over to a top-5 total offense in 2022 and a similarly-impressive performance in 2023. Quarterback Jared Goff is performing at the most efficient clip of his career after being cast aside with the Rams, and players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell have emerged as two of the top players under 25 at their positions. Prior to taking over as offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson served as TJ Hockenson’s position coach for two seasons, and he played backup quarterback for the UNC Tar Heels for four seasons while earning his Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and Computer Science.

Dan Quinn, Cowboys Defensive Coordinator (Age: 53)

Dan Quinn is in his third season coordinating the Cowboys’ defense, and that unit has improved every season under his watch. The Cowboys are on track to finish with the 3rd-ranked total defense in 2023, and under Quinn’s watch, Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs have emerged as two of the most dominant young defenders in the NFL. Prior to joining the Cowboys, Dan Quinn was the head coach of the Falcons for five seasons, finishing with a 43-42 record and a Super Bowl appearance. Before Atlanta, Quinn coordinated the Seahawks’ to back-to-back top-ranked total defensive outputs in 2013 and 2014 under head coach Pete Carroll, and he played four seasons at Division III Salisbury State as a defensive lineman.

Jim Schwartz, Browns Defensive Coordinator (Age: 57)

Jim Schwartz is in his first season as the Browns’ defensive coordinator, and his performance so far has been stellar, as the unit went from around league average in 2022 to a team capable of stifling powerhouse offenses like San Francisco and Cincinnati’s in 2023. Overall, the Browns are on track to finish with the top-ranked total defense in 2023, with career years from Myles Garrett and Martin Emerson. Prior to joining the Browns, Schwartz coordinated the Super Bowl-winning 2017 Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, and he served as the Lions’ head coach from 2009 to 2013, bringing them out of the depths of their infamous 0-16 season in 2008 and to relevancy with a 29-51 total record.

Frank Smith, Dolphins Offensive Coordinator (Age: 42)

Frank Smith is in his second season as an offensive coordinator under Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins have transformed into an AFC powerhouse, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the unquestioned top receiving duo in the NFL and Tua Tagovailoa is in the running to win MVP this season. Overall, the Dolphins are on track to finish with the top-ranked total offense in 2023 on Smith’s watch after finishing in the bottom-10 just two years ago in 2021. Prior to joining the Dolphins, Frank Smith served as Rashawn Slater’s offensive line coach in 2021, and he was the tight end coach for the Raiders from 2018 to 2020, overseeing a Pro Bowl season from Jared Cook and taking part in the development of Darren Waller.

Bobby Slowik, Texans Offensive Coordinator (Age: 36)

Bobby Slowik is in his first season coordinating the Texans’ offense, and the offense is drastically outperforming expectations. The Texans currently have a 4-4 record, and quarterback CJ Stroud is the runaway betting favorite to win offensive rookie of the year. Prior to joining the Texans, Bobby Slowik spent four seasons on Kyle Shanahan’s offensive staff, helping in the development of skill-position talent like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Brock Purdy and was seen as Kyle Shanahan’s top offensive assistant following Mike McDaniel’s departure. Before San Francisco, Slowik spent two years as an analyst at PFF, and he played wide receiver for the Michigan Tech Huskies for three seasons.

Jeff Ulbrich, Jets Defensive Coordinator (Age: 46)

Jeff Ulbrich is in his third season as a defensive coordinator under Robert Saleh and the Jets have made an incredible transformation under his watch, going from the worst-ranked total defense in the league in 2021 to the fourth-ranked total defense in 2022 and a unit capable of going toe-to-toe with Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in 2023. Jeff Ulbrich has been instrumental in the development of Deion Jones and Quincy Williams, two modern-style linebackers drafted in the middle rounds, into top players at their position. Jeff Ulbrich started his coaching career with the Seahawks in 2010 under Pete Carroll, and he played ten seasons in the NFL as a linebacker for the 49ers.

Honorable Mentions: Eagles OC Brian Johnson, Ravens OC Todd Monken, Bengals DC Lou Anarumo, Ravens DC Mike MacDonald

With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.

Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.

Players who were either a flash in the pan or suddenly disappeared from the NFL.