Before we go any further, we need to define what a mayday field goal actually is. Broncos coach Sean Payton said he calls it “hurricane” now, and other teams might refer to it as “lightning,” but whatever you call it, teams have similar parameters.
- Running clock
- Offense has no timeouts left in the half
- Third down, in or near field-goal range
- Inside of 40 seconds, all the way down to 17 seconds on the clock
The Athletic talked to two recently out-of-the-game special teams coordinators and three other current NFL staffers who work closely with coaching decisions, and all five agreed that an NFL team should not sub out their existing defense for the field goal block defense when they are operating in a “mayday” field goal situation. There’s not enough time to guarantee a clean substitution (under two minutes, the officials don’t stand over the ball to allow a man-for-man substitution) and the chances of blocking a field goal are miniscule.
“Defensively, we would never substitute an opponent’s mayday situation for the exact reason (of) what happened the other night,” said Mike Priefer, longtime special teams coordinator for four NFL teams, most recently the Cleveland Browns.
Over the past five seasons, just 2.2 percent of all field goal attempts have been blocked across the NFL (86 of 3,925), and it’s been even less common with the game on the line. Over the same span, just 1.8 percent of all potential game-tying/go-ahead field goal attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime have been blocked (7 of 392).
Buffalo has actually had better-than-average results on this play. The Bills have blocked 2.7 percent of all opponent field goal attempts under head coach Sean McDermott, the seventh-highest rate across the NFL since his first season in 2017. That includes 7.1 percent of potential game-tying/go-ahead attempts in the fourth quarter or OT by their opponents (1 of 14).
But that’s still not enough reward to risk a more likely and unnecessary result: Having too many men on the field.
“You don’t want to give them a second chance,” Priefer said. “Whatever 11 is on the field, in a mayday situation, nickel or dime, keep them out there and make sure you don’t have more than six on the line of scrimmage on one side of the center or the other, and make sure you come off the edge.”
