When it comes to luck in the NFL we can boil it down to two old addages:
- It’s better to be lucky than good.
- Good teams make their own luck.
So which is it? Let’s try to use some statistics and metrics to see which NFL teams have been the luckiest and unluckiest, and see if there is an addage that fits the 2023 season.
To keep the reddit post as short as possible, the metrics methodology part has been cut out. If you are interested in the thought process and methodology behind the luck quotient, you can read the entire article here: In the NFL, it's better to be lucky than good. Or is it?
NFL 2023 - Luck Quotient
The Luck Quotient
The Luck Quotient will be a measurement of how lucky or unlucky each NFL team has been thus far in 2023. The one luck component I could not add was the effect of injuries. Clearly it would be unlucky to lose your starting QB for the year, while remaining relatively injury free would be lucky for any team.
Unfortunately, I could not find a free source that listed all injuries by all teams in terms of man games lost. I know the stats exist, but NFLLINES always limits statistics and metric to publicly availble stats. If it were possible to add in the injuries metrics, we could do something where we assign value for starters, substitute and partial game injuries. Unfortunately this will have to wait until such stats become available to all.
Luck Quotient metrics will either count for their full value, 1/2 their value, 1/4 of their value, or a flat 0.50 or 0.25 StDev units. If you are interested in the how/why of the metrics, use the link above to read the full post. With that in mind, here is the list of metrics I chose for the Luck Quotient:
Full Value Metrics
- FG %
- Opponent Fumble Recovery %
- Interceptions thrown
Half Value Metrics
- Punt return avg
- Kick return average
0.50 StDev units per occurance
- Returned Fumble for TD
- Returned Interception for TD
- Recorded a Safety
Quarter Value Metric
0.25 StDev units per occurance
- Punt return TD
- Kick return TD
The Luckiest & Unluckiest NFL Teams in 2023
After we total up the scores for each metric, we are left with the final Luck Quotient for each team. The 3 luckiest teams are the only 3 teams that scored over 3.0:
- Dallas(3.74)
- Houston(3.16)
- Tampa Bay(3.06)
Dallas scored 2.5 of their 3.74 luck points from defensive returns for TD and a safety. Houston has no defensive scores and Tampa has a Interception return for TD. If we eliminated luck points for defensive scores, Houston would be the luckiest team(3.16), followed by Tampa bay(2.56) and LA Chargers (2.46).
At the other end of the luck spectrum, the three unluckiest teams are the only 3 teams that scored lower than -2.0:
- New England(-3.67)
- Buffalo(-2.70)
- LA Rams(-2.28)
If we eliminated defensive scores, New England(-3.17) would still be the unluckiest, but the Rams(-2.28), would flip spots with the Bills (-2.20), and the Vikings(2 defensive scores) would drop & tie for 3rd unluckiest(-2.20). Both the Patriots & Bills have 1 defensive score, while the Rams have zero. So their unluckiness extends to their defensive scoring prowess as well.
One statistical oddity, note the Denver Broncos Punt and Kick return units. Punt return avg of 20.7 yds and kick return avg of 33.6 yds with a TD. Surely that kick return average is inflated due to the TD return, but the punt return average is also off the charts. Gold Stars to the Denver kick/punt return unit and coach for their performance in 2023 so far.
The other unusual tidbit, Green Bay's opponents only recovering 18.75% of fumbles so far. The lowest value for that I could find since 2018 was the 2021 Arizona Cardinal's opponents recovered only 30.51% of fumbles & 2019 New Orleans Saints' opponents recovered only 30.77% of fumbles. The ball is bouncing the Packers way so far.
Is It Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Or Do Good Teams Make Their Own Luck?
The record for each team is listed in the final columns of the Luck Quotient chart. And the answer at least for 2023 is pretty clear.
- The 8 Luckiest NFL teams in 2023 have a combined record of 36 – 36 (.500).
- The 8 Unluckiest NFL teams in 2023 have a combined record of 29 – 50 (.367).
- If we combine the 8 luckiest and 8 unluckiest teams, those 16 teams have a combined record of 65 – 86 (.4305).
- The 16 teams with average luck have a combined record of 86 – 65 (.5695).
Thus, good teams make their own luck, at least in 2023.
