I was thinking about this scenario, and I don't think I've ever seen it happen in a game. What would happen if a QB was hit while throwing a backwards pass and the hit caused him to lose control of the ball. If the QB's hand is moving forward when the hit occurs, but he's throwing backwards, is it a fumble or incomplete pass? Has anyone ever seen this occur in a game?

This is going to sound silly, but my favorite part of the NFL broadcasts is where they show the camera crew enjoying a buffet before they get to work.

I just like the idea that these guys who have to work on Thanksgiving are still being well fed.

The rapid explosion in "QB breakdown" videos this year from QBSchool, Kurt Warner, Brees, Daniels and a million copycats made me realize that they seem to have their own name for basically every route combination. "Oh yeah, I call this one Jimmy 2 Shift" proceeds to draw out the route combination.

I get that there are definitely some broad differences like Shanahan offenses leaning on zone run and bootlegs but it's not like they're running some extra special sauce right? Seems like everyone else knows the same plays and could just run more of them if they wanted to have a "Shanahan offense".

What is it that actually separates the quality of these different coordinators and schemes?

I know it's still early but if they keep their trajectory, my vote goes to CJ Stroud and Puka Nacua.

Adjusted Passer Rating = Traditional Passer Rating, removing Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes.

^(also note: I am using QB Rating & Passer Rating synonymously. This is not ESPN's QBR.)

The bird gauntlet:

Week 12: Seahawks

Week 13: Eagles

Week 14: Seahawks

Week 15: Cardinals

Week 16: Ravens

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547548

DeVito 18/26, 246 yards, 3 TD 0 INT 36.1QBR

Howell 31/45, 255 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT 58.9 QBR

Titans have lost every road game

I was messing around with some adjusted passer ratings a few weeks ago and a lot of the responses wanted Rushing contributions to be included. So I came up with a new method to do so, combining the adjusted Passer Rating (Passer Rating without Drops, Spikes, Throwaways) with Rushing production. That produced what I call QB CPR.

^(Full disclosure: I am a 49ers fan, but I did not do this to overhype Purdy. He was not atop this list when I started (Cousins, Goff, & Stroud were 1, 2, & 3, respectively. Ignore my flair and you will still see differences like Goff, Wilson, and Mahomes vs their traditional rankings.))

​

CPR

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing

GUIDE:

• CPR = Adjusted Passer Rating + Rushing Production
  • Adjusted Passer Rating = Passer Rating after eliminating Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes
  • Combined with Rushing Yds, TDs, & Fumbles Lost
• C-Yd = Combined Yards (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD = Combined TDs (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO = Combined Turnovers (Rushing + Passing)
• C-YPA = Combined Yards Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD% = Combined TD% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO% = Combined Turnover% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)

CPR2

While doing all this I was looking for another metric to account for players that were doing the majority of the work. That is to say, not benefiting strictly of YAC. So I came up with another metric for this. CPR2 takes the original CPR metric and strips the YAC.

• As an example, it is much harder to earn a perfect rating this way.
  • Keenan Allen is 1/1 for a 49 yd TD. Under both standard and my CPR Rating that would be a 158.3 Rating. However, with CPR2 that becomes a 142.2 Rating. In this rating, perfect means perfect. K.Allen would have had to throw 1/1 for 49 Air Yards on a TD.

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing, further adjusted away from YAC

Guide:

• CPR2 = Takes CPR and adjusts it toward the % of a player's total yards are not from YAC.
  • This is designed to give a more accurate picture of what a QB is doing (as both a runner & passer) separate from the receiver.
• AYPC = Air Yards Per Completion
• YAC/Cmp = Yards After Catch, per Completion
• CRAY = % of Combined Yards from Rushing and Air Yards
• CYAC = % of Combined Yards from Yards after the Catch

Stats vs Context

• A stat like Passer Rating is just a stat. It doesn't give context. You still have to take the stat and apply context to it.
• CPR is just a stat. You still have to apply context to it. But hopefully, this gives a more accurate piece of the picture than basic passer rating.

Common Q&A:

• Does CPR2 favor QBs who have a very strong arm and launch a lot of deep balls?.
  • No. Arm Strength is a routine criticism of Purdy. But he can functionally throw an accurate deep ball without the greatest arm strength.
• Does CPR2 favor QBs who launch a lot of deep balls?
  • Not necessarily. R.Tannehill leads the NFL in Intended Air Yards per attempt. Watson is 2nd, J.Love is 4th. But none of them rank that highly overall.
• Does CPR2 hurt QBs who get a lot of YAC?
  • No. When you look at Stroud you can see he leads the NFL in Air Yards per completion. But he is also 6th in YAC/Cmp. Purdy is 2nd & 1st. Tua is 6th and 3rd. It is possible to get both Air Yards and YAC.
• Why punish checkdowns?
  • the design is not to "punish" anyone. CPR2, specifically, is designed to credit those that are doing more outside of YAC, specifically including on the ground, which is the original criticism I was addressing.
• Why strip away YAC:?
  • Stripping YAC shows more of the individual contribution, especially with the legs. Which is why you see good runners like Hurts and Lamar take a leap. Their traditional passer rating, invented before the age of mobile QBs, doesn't properly give them credit for this overall play.

Their remaining schedule goes:

Commanders (4-7) Seahawks (6-4) Eagles (9-1) Bills (6-5) Dolphins (7-3) Lions (8-2) Commanders (4-7)

Five straight games against winning teams.

There has been so much focus on the Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop that would have given the Chiefs the lead late in the fourth quarter. The assumption is the Chiefs would have won if he makes that catch. Putting aside there was 1:45 left, the Eagles had 3 timeouts left, and Hurts has five 4th quarter comeback wins already on a team that rarely trailed in the fourth quarter, let's focus more on why this happed.

Does Tyreek Hill catch this pass? You are damn right he does. Does he make that 4th and 25 catch on that incredible Mahomes throw. Yep. Most likely. But the Chiefs made a choice. They traded Hill before the 2022 season. They spend their 2022 draft loading up on defense and drafting Skyy Moore. They then let JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman go before the 2023 season.

So the team KC chose to field had a much better defense and much weaker WR core. That led to the Eagles to put up only 21 points against them. Go back in time and keep those WRs, you get a more potent offense but continue to have significant problems with a weak defense.

So, does Hill catch that ball? Yep, 99%. But, in that same what if, the Eagles could easily have put up 35 points on a weaker KC defense making that late game catch not matter.

In the end, the 2023 version of two great teams played. One kept their incredible WRs to compliment their electric QB. One did not. One made half time adjustments, executed the big plays at the right time, created the red zone turnovers, and won the game. The other had major issues with dropped passes and poorly run routes that cost them the game.

Today marks the 60th anniversary of the JFK assassination. This article goes into the controversial decision of the NFL and Pete Rozelle to hold games two days later.

• Rozelle later would regret holding the games. He faced public pressure from Governor George Romney (father of Mitt) who urged him to cancel the games. He declined.

• Kennedy had signed the sports broadcasting act which essentially forced the NFL into Sunday broadcasts so as not to conflict with college football. Incidentally, Amazon as a streaming service is not beholden to this law and thus can broadcast NFL games at their leisure,

• NFL owners were fairly divided to play the games or not. Dan Rooney urged Rozelle to cancel, but Rozelle declined.

• The AFL canceled games, causing some public backlash against the NFL.

• Rozelle was a personal friend of Kennedy’s and was very depressed following Kennedy’s murder.

• Even though some fans were upset with the decision to play, many sellout crowds still happened that weekend, including a 63,000 seat sellout between the Cardinals and Giants,

• When the Cowboys arrived in Cleveland for a game, some of the baggage handlers at the airport refused to handle their bags because JFK had been killed in Dallas. “We were [viewed as] killers, [as though] we had killed the president,” Dallas tight end Pettis Norman later said, according to a 2021 History.com story.” Art Modell requested the announcers simply refer to the team as the “Cowboys” instead of the “Dallas Cowboys.”

Really fascinating read.

Hey all. Just wanted to share some statistics I found while looking at the 2023 Browns defense so far this year. Keep in mind the Browns have already had their bye week while a few teams have not.

The Browns defense...

• Has given up 2433 total yards which is over 200 less than 2nd place.

• Have the lowest passing yards against (1437) and Lowest Passing TDs against (9)

• Has the lowest QB Rate against (71.6) and completion percentage against (55.3%)

• Has the highest expected points contributed at 88.61.

• Has the highest sack percentage (11.1%) and #2 in pressure percentage (27.6%)

• Has the highest tackles for loss at 64

• Has the lowest 1st downs allowed (126) which is 37 fewer than 2nd place.

• Allow ONLY 3.2 3rd down conversions per game.

• Has Allowed only 32 out of 126 3rd downs to be converted for a 3rd down conversion percentage of 25.3%. The NFL record is the 2019 Patriots at 24.1%. The next lowest percentage is the Cowboys at 32.8%

• Has allowed the lowest percentage of offensive drives to end in a score (21.7%)

Now for the craziest stats...

• The Browns defense has faced the 2nd most drives against them in the league (Giants #1 with 1 more game). While the Browns have faced the 2nd most drives total, the Browns defense have the LEAST amount of total plays against them by 40(!) plays.

• Offenses against the Browns defense have the 9th BEST average starting field position in the league

• Per Drive teams only have 4.3 plays, 18.8 yards, 2:01 time of possession, and 1.24 points against the Browns.

So essentially, teams usually have good starting field possession and the most opportunities to score on the Browns, but can rarely even get a first down let alone score.

Some other pretty mindblowing miscellaneous stats...

• The Bears have allowed more completed passes than the amount of passes attempted vs. Browns

• The Browns defense only allows 14.6 completed passes per game

• 13.6% of the TOTAL points scored against the Browns have been defensive touchdowns from turnovers.

• Browns defense has kept opposing QBs under 150 passing 5 times (Burrow 82, Tannehill 104, Purdy 125, Tune 58, Pickett 106)

• Browns defense is on pace for 2442.9 total passing yards against. The 1985 Bears defense allowed 2816 in 1 fewer game. 143 yards per game to 176 yards per game.

I don't really know the historical significance of any of these stats so if anyone wants to contribute anything interesting it would be greatly appreciated. Also to note, the Browns run defense has been good but not great. They have been gashed for some big plays, which makes the total yards number even more crazy. All these numbers are being put up with a fairly bad offense that doesn't move the ball extremely well and turns the ball over a lot.

Side note: The Browns remaining schedule also features remaining games against the Bears, the Jets, and the Bengals all in Ohio in December. The Broncos game has a high of 40 degrees so weather should start to factor in with some of these games.

Side note #2: I got most of these stats from Pro Football Reference and I am not a statistician so if anything is wrong don't sue me.

Thought this was an interesting discussion for a few reasons.

First of all, he absolutely deserves it.

The Vikings who had one of the worst defenses in the league in almost all statistical categories, with largely the same players are 14th in PFF grade, 8th in DVOA, 11th in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric, 13th in YPG and 15th in PPG.

It’s a ridiculous turnaround that Flo is undeniably responsible for.

But then you add the layer of the lawsuit, will owners want to touch that?

Plus, Flo was in what he viewed as a toxic organization last go around. Will he be picky? He has to know this will be his last shot at a HC gig. He also has small kids and has stated a bunch of times how much they enjoy living in MN.

Last factor here is the Vikings ownership who have time and time again opened their pockets to get the team whatever it needs. I have no doubt they would be willing to give him the Assistant HC title and make him the highest paid assistant coach in the league.

So what do you think happens here, does Flo take a job this offseason?

r/NFL Scoring Game - Week 12 Standings and Picks

Week 11 results

Week 11 standings and picks

The highest picked team was the Texans scored 21 points. The lowest scoring team that was picked was Washington with 19 points, and the highest was the Cowboys with 33 points.

Top 3

Not a lot of changes at the top:

• u/DanOfBradford78 is at the top with 357 points

• u/Tameyoshi at number 2 with 348 points

• u/doctor_ben at number 3 with 336 points

Week 12 picks

Don't forget that this week we have 3 games on Thursday and 1 on Friday.

Please remember that you cannot choose a team you already took in a previous week. You can subscribe to r/NFLScoringGame for reminders.

Submit your Week 12 picks here