So I have been badgering you guys for weeks now with ratings, statistics, standard deviations, etc... But just like back in middle school, during holiday weeks math teachers are too lazy to write lesson plans.

Therefore everyone gets the holiday off from any math, calculations, conceptualizing or crunching! Enjoy your turkey, personally I'd prefer an easter egg.

Instead I would like to offer the story about a player, Lester Hayes, who is now known more for his infamy, than for how good a player he was.

Imo, Hayes is a HOF player being kept out because, just like a notorious hoodie wearing coach we all know, he kind went into the grey area when it came to the rules at the time.

Maybe if enough people review Hayes' stats, the NFL Senior Selection Committee will at least take a look at his career and statistics for HOF consideration.

You can read the full story here: 1980 – The Year Lester Hayes Broke The NFL – The Stickum Saga

TLDR: Just watch the 3 min vid below and you will get the general gist of the Stickum story. However, it does not even begin to touch on how good a player Hayes was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bypl5bpZF8

There is more to the story, including Hayes' remarkable 1980 playoff performance and the history of Stickum in the NFL, so I hope you can find the time to read the full article.

Happy Holiday to all celebrating today. Enjoy the time with friends, family & football!

Quick Synopsis

Lester Hayes in the 1980 regular season

• 13 interceptions in the regular season - The modern NFL record that still stands.
• 7 interceptions in a 6 game stretch.
• Streaks of 6 consecutive games and 4 consecutive games with interceptions.
• Picked off at least one pass in 12 games of a 16 game regular season.
• 5 Post season interceptions.
• 18 interceptions in 20 games.

Lester Hayes Career

• Won 1980 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
• Won Two Superbowls - 1980, 1983
• 5 time Pro Bowl Selection
• All Pro 1st team once & 2nd team five times
• 39 career interceptions
• 8 career post season interceptions
• 7 fumble recoveries

In the 34 game stretch that began with the final 2 games of 1978, all of 1979, and all of 1980, Lester Hayes recorded 23 Interceptions, for 407 return yards, and 3 Touchdowns.  It is a span of modern* defensive cornerback greatness that I can only find one instance that is close to matching it.

In the first 34 games of his career, Everson Walls recorded 22 Interceptions and returned 1 for a touchdown.  I could find no other modern* NFL player who could even get close to 20 interceptions over a 34 games span.  

*Dick "Night Train" Lane had 25 INT in his first 34 games in 1952-54, and holds the record for most interceptions in a season with 14.

Lester Hayes 34 game span in which he recorded 23 interceptions. He added 5 more in the 1980 playoffs.

With the Thanksgiving game today. I thought it would be a good time to look back at how many QB injuries happened against the Seahawks, and how a handful of them altered the direction of the Franchise.

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2022 Week 2: Trey Lance -> Jimmy G (Season Ender)

Trey Lance's debut as the full-time starter (w/full offseason of starter reps) was cut short due to a fractured ankle, ending his season. This pushed Brock Purdy from the third-string position to the backup role.

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2021: Week 4 Jimmy G -> Trey Lance (1 game missed)

This one wasn’t as big or significant. Jimmy suffered a calf injury and missed 1 game.

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2020 Week 8: Jimmy G -> Nick Mullens (Season Ender)

Jimmy Garoppolo's ankle injury sidelined him for the remainder of the season. This injury caused the season to derail, and ultimately gave the 49ers 12th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. 49ers infamously traded this pick and two additional first round picks for Trey Lance. Kyle Shanahan said in an interview that a reason they made this move was because “they didn’t anticipate having such a low draft position in the near future”.

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2017 Week 12: CJ Beathard -> Jimmy G

The 49ers had traded for Jimmy G at the trade deadline. He didn’t play right away due to needing to learn the playbook. CJ Beathard’s injury forced the 49ers to insert Jimmy into the lineup. The 49ers proceeded to go 5-0 and give Jimmy a 5 year $137.5 million deal.

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Alex Smith injury in 2007

Smith suffered a season ending shoulder injury vs the Seahawks in week 3. This injury really set him back, and I would argue his shoulder/arm was never the same. He had nice zip and velocity before his injury.

There are always those players that a lot of fans haven't realized have gotten washed and are therefore shocked when they are traded/released, or players that simply aren't worth the cap hit. So which are those players for your favorite team?

Different fans of different teams spanning different generations have seen their favorites play on Thanksgiving.

From Randy Moss and Leon Lett to the Butt Fumble and Tomlin’s Trip, there have been many anNFL Thanksgiving moment that we will remember forever.

What tops your Turkey Day NFL memories?

I was thinking about this scenario, and I don't think I've ever seen it happen in a game. What would happen if a QB was hit while throwing a backwards pass and the hit caused him to lose control of the ball. If the QB's hand is moving forward when the hit occurs, but he's throwing backwards, is it a fumble or incomplete pass? Has anyone ever seen this occur in a game?

This is going to sound silly, but my favorite part of the NFL broadcasts is where they show the camera crew enjoying a buffet before they get to work.

I just like the idea that these guys who have to work on Thanksgiving are still being well fed.

The rapid explosion in "QB breakdown" videos this year from QBSchool, Kurt Warner, Brees, Daniels and a million copycats made me realize that they seem to have their own name for basically every route combination. "Oh yeah, I call this one Jimmy 2 Shift" proceeds to draw out the route combination.

I get that there are definitely some broad differences like Shanahan offenses leaning on zone run and bootlegs but it's not like they're running some extra special sauce right? Seems like everyone else knows the same plays and could just run more of them if they wanted to have a "Shanahan offense".

What is it that actually separates the quality of these different coordinators and schemes?

I know it's still early but if they keep their trajectory, my vote goes to CJ Stroud and Puka Nacua.

Adjusted Passer Rating = Traditional Passer Rating, removing Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes.

^(also note: I am using QB Rating & Passer Rating synonymously. This is not ESPN's QBR.)

The bird gauntlet:

Week 12: Seahawks

Week 13: Eagles

Week 14: Seahawks

Week 15: Cardinals

Week 16: Ravens

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547548

DeVito 18/26, 246 yards, 3 TD 0 INT 36.1QBR

Howell 31/45, 255 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT 58.9 QBR

Titans have lost every road game

I was messing around with some adjusted passer ratings a few weeks ago and a lot of the responses wanted Rushing contributions to be included. So I came up with a new method to do so, combining the adjusted Passer Rating (Passer Rating without Drops, Spikes, Throwaways) with Rushing production. That produced what I call QB CPR.

^(Full disclosure: I am a 49ers fan, but I did not do this to overhype Purdy. He was not atop this list when I started (Cousins, Goff, & Stroud were 1, 2, & 3, respectively. Ignore my flair and you will still see differences like Goff, Wilson, and Mahomes vs their traditional rankings.))

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CPR

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing

GUIDE:

• CPR = Adjusted Passer Rating + Rushing Production
  • Adjusted Passer Rating = Passer Rating after eliminating Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes
  • Combined with Rushing Yds, TDs, & Fumbles Lost
• C-Yd = Combined Yards (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD = Combined TDs (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO = Combined Turnovers (Rushing + Passing)
• C-YPA = Combined Yards Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TD% = Combined TD% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
• C-TO% = Combined Turnover% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)

CPR2

While doing all this I was looking for another metric to account for players that were doing the majority of the work. That is to say, not benefiting strictly of YAC. So I came up with another metric for this. CPR2 takes the original CPR metric and strips the YAC.

• As an example, it is much harder to earn a perfect rating this way.
  • Keenan Allen is 1/1 for a 49 yd TD. Under both standard and my CPR Rating that would be a 158.3 Rating. However, with CPR2 that becomes a 142.2 Rating. In this rating, perfect means perfect. K.Allen would have had to throw 1/1 for 49 Air Yards on a TD.

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing, further adjusted away from YAC

Guide:

• CPR2 = Takes CPR and adjusts it toward the % of a player's total yards are not from YAC.
  • This is designed to give a more accurate picture of what a QB is doing (as both a runner & passer) separate from the receiver.
• AYPC = Air Yards Per Completion
• YAC/Cmp = Yards After Catch, per Completion
• CRAY = % of Combined Yards from Rushing and Air Yards
• CYAC = % of Combined Yards from Yards after the Catch

Stats vs Context

• A stat like Passer Rating is just a stat. It doesn't give context. You still have to take the stat and apply context to it.
• CPR is just a stat. You still have to apply context to it. But hopefully, this gives a more accurate piece of the picture than basic passer rating.

Common Q&A:

• Does CPR2 favor QBs who have a very strong arm and launch a lot of deep balls?.
  • No. Arm Strength is a routine criticism of Purdy. But he can functionally throw an accurate deep ball without the greatest arm strength.
• Does CPR2 favor QBs who launch a lot of deep balls?
  • Not necessarily. R.Tannehill leads the NFL in Intended Air Yards per attempt. Watson is 2nd, J.Love is 4th. But none of them rank that highly overall.
• Does CPR2 hurt QBs who get a lot of YAC?
  • No. When you look at Stroud you can see he leads the NFL in Air Yards per completion. But he is also 6th in YAC/Cmp. Purdy is 2nd & 1st. Tua is 6th and 3rd. It is possible to get both Air Yards and YAC.
• Why punish checkdowns?
  • the design is not to "punish" anyone. CPR2, specifically, is designed to credit those that are doing more outside of YAC, specifically including on the ground, which is the original criticism I was addressing.
• Why strip away YAC:?
  • Stripping YAC shows more of the individual contribution, especially with the legs. Which is why you see good runners like Hurts and Lamar take a leap. Their traditional passer rating, invented before the age of mobile QBs, doesn't properly give them credit for this overall play.