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First as farce, then again as farce

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Labour MP says abuse and threats she has faced are indicative of serious problem that risks undermining democracy

lenin-dont-laugh

Stella Creasy wrote in the Guardian that it was not acceptable to picket MPs in their home in response to an opinion piece by Just Stop Oil justifying the targeting of MPs.

Aren't they funded by an oil company too?

The Labour and Cooperative MP for Walthamstow in north-east London said that harassment towards political representatives was increasingly normalised and “climate protesters picketing MPs’ houses is no more acceptable than the threats I have received from anti-abortion campaigners”.

She added: “All would argue their cause is vital and important that such tactics are merited – but to allow these behaviours to become the norm for any is therefore to enable it for all.”

KKKrakkker bozo think's protesters are mean for demanding justice disgost

(Brendan Cox) told the Guardian: “It’s really important that we keep our spirit of healthy, active and sometimes rambunctious democratic disagreement but when we start to target people in their homes it tips over into the risk of intimidation and it will make members of parliament more worried for their personal security.”

This whole articles is just: "I'm smol bean MP, please no bully for the policies I support" ukkk qin-shi-huangdi-fireball

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xigma-male

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https://archive.is/XUjOH

spoilerHundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.

The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.

Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.

American officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to any collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to follow up with another major offensive.

But the capture of hundreds of soldiers could change that calculus. American officials have said in recent days that morale was already eroding among Ukrainian troops, in the wake of a failed counteroffensive last year and the removal of a top commander. Because of those problems, the officials said, Ukraine’s military has struggled with recruitment.

Ukrainian military officials have said they want to mobilize up to 500,000 more people, but the request has met political resistance and is stalled in Parliament. The capture of hundreds of soldiers, especially those with battlefield experience, would make the need for more troops more acute and complicate the effort to recruit more.

As a result, the fall of Avdiivka may be more important than it initially seemed.

The Ukrainian military command has acknowledged that some soldiers were captured in the retreat from Avdiivka but has tried to downplay the numbers and the significance.

On Saturday, Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine’s military fighting in the area, said on the Telegram messaging application that the retreat had gone according to plan but “at the final stage of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the enemy, some Ukrainian servicemen fell into captivity.” He did not disclose how many troops were captured.

Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, disputed reports that hundreds of soldiers had been captured, calling it misinformation. But he acknowledged that Russia had captured some service members and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.

A senior Ukrainian official insisted that only six soldiers had been taken prisoner in the retreat from the city. Those soldiers, from the Third Separate Assault Brigade, were captured after they ran out of ammunition and lost communication with the Ukrainian military, the official said.

But some soldiers and Western officials said a failure to execute an orderly withdrawal, and the chaos that unfolded Friday and Saturday as the defenses collapsed, was directly responsible for what appears to be a significant number of soldiers captured.

They said the Ukrainian withdrawal was ill-planned and began too late. The soldiers and Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments that are at odds with Ukrainian government statements.

Retreating under withering artillery fire, drones and airstrikes is one of the most difficult military maneuvers, challenging commanders to minimize loss of life and allow units to fall back without ceding more land than intended.

Based on interviews with soldiers, Ukraine’s forces were unprepared for how quickly the Russian advance in Avdiivka gathered speed last week.

Ukraine tried to buy time for its regular infantry forces to pull back, out of the city, using its special operation forces and the elite Third Separate Assault Brigade to cover the retreat. But the units could not slow the Russian advance or get every Ukrainian soldier out.

Senior Ukrainian officials say the Russian forces also suffered heavy losses in the battle. Russia took Avdiivka by sheer mass, sending in troops and armored vehicles until Ukrainian defenses folded. Thousands of Russia soldiers were killed and wounded, the officials said.

A chaotic retreat is not inevitable. Withdrawing troops without taking heavy losses is difficult, but possible, if it is done in a deliberate, unrushed operation, according to American strategists.

In Avdiivka, Ukraine appeared to have waited too long to start withdrawing and the frantic retreat quickly turned costly.

For the Ukrainians, the challenge of pulling out of Avdiivka was compounded by the fact Russia had surrounded the city on nearly three sides. A single paved road was the most viable way into and out of the city. That route, which Ukrainian troops nicknamed the road of life, came under direct threat earlier this month, making the withdrawal far more dangerous.

When Ukrainian forces began pulling back, unverified open source videos and photos showed units retreating under artillery fire and bodies scattered along roads and in tree lines. Ukrainian military units have long struggled to communicate with each other because they often have different radio equipment. Soldiers with knowledge of the retreat said the communication problems were a factor in the withdrawal, leading to soldiers being captured, killed and wounded.

The soldiers interviewed by The New York Times suggested that some units pulled back before others were aware of the retreat. That put the units left behind at risk of encirclement by the Russians.

Since the war began nearly two years ago, Russian forces have tried to encircle and capture Ukrainian forces. While well-prepared defenses and overhead drones have prevented many of those maneuvers from succeeding, in Avdiivka, the Russian encirclement appears to have worked. Western officials suggest the maneuver was one reason soldiers were captured during the retreat.

Unverified videos posted to social media also showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian troops in and around Avdiivka. On Sunday, the prosecutor’s office in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast said on Telegram it was launching an investigation into “into the shootings of unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Avdiivka and Vesele.”

The Kremlin itself does not appear to have been prepared for the speed of the Ukrainian collapse in Avdiivka. Often Kremlin propaganda pushed through the state-controlled news media leads the themes on Russian social media, said Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs AI, which studies Russian messaging and public opinion. But as the Ukrainian defense in Avdiivka collapsed, the discussions on Russian social media started shifting before the Kremlin settled on new messaging.

“Russia wasn’t really prepped for this either in terms of a prepared propaganda blitz,” Mr. Teubner said. “They have now pounced on it, but haven’t managed to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign yet.”

Prisoners of war are one of the biggest challenges to morale in any war. Ukraine has pressed Russia repeatedly to agree to exchange prisoners.

As of November, the Ukrainian government said that Russia had 3,574 Ukrainian military personnel in captivity.

In January, Ukraine used a Western-provided Patriot missile to take down a Russian cargo plane that officials thought was carrying missiles and munitions. Russian officials said it was transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war. American officials have said it appeared probable that some Ukrainian prisoners were on the plane.

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jokermala We did it, Joe! We fixed inflation!

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huh?

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Support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but nearly two years after the full-scale invasion barely 10% now believe it can defeat Russia, according to an EU-wide survey – with some form of “compromise settlement” seen as the most likely end point.

The shift in sentiment – this time last year, more Europeans than not said Ukraine must regain all its lost territory – will demand that politicians take a more “realistic” approach that focuses on defining what an acceptable peace must actually mean, the report’s authors argue.

“In order to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change how they talk about the war,” said co-author Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the polling.

Most Europeans “are desperate to prevent a Russian victory” but do not believe Kyiv can win militarily, Leonard said, meaning that the most convincing argument for an increasingly sceptical public was that continuing aid “could lead to a sustainable, negotiated peace that favours Kyiv – rather than a victory for Putin”.

The January polling in 12 EU member states – including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – found that Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive, growing fears of a US policy shift and the prospect of a second US presidential term for Donald Trump were fuelling pessimism about the war’s outcome.

It was carried out before Ukraine’s retreat at the weekend from the eastern town of Avdiivka, which handed Russia its most significant military victory since the capture of Bakhmut by Wagner troops in May 2023. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

The report, Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine, found that only one in 10 Europeans across the 12 countries surveyed believed Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic member states surveyed – Poland, Sweden and Portugal – fewer than one in five (17%) believed Kyiv could prevail.

In all countries, the polling showed, the most common opinion, shared by an average of 37% of respondents, was that the war would end in a compromise settlement – although some countries were keener on that outcome than others.

In Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more likely to say Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while in Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%) and Austria (49%), they preferred pushing Kyiv to accept a settlement. In France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, opinions were more evenly divided.

The polling yielded evidence that many Europeans increasingly considered Russia’s war against Ukraine to be of direct concern to them, with 33% saying it had a greater impact on their country – and on Europe (29%) – than the war in the Middle East (compared to 5% who said the opposite on both counts).

The possible return of Trump to the White House was broadly seen as bad news, with 56% of respondents across the 12 countries surveyed saying they would be very or fairly disappointed if the former president was re-elected.

The only exception was Hungary, where 27% of respondents said they would be pleased by Trump’s return and 31% disappointed. Similarly, supporters of only one major political party – Hungary’s Fidesz – were hopeful of a Trump victory.

Among other far-right parties previously expressing support for Trump, only about a third of voters for Germany’s AfD, Austria’s FPÖ or Brothers of Italy said they would welcome his return, with pro-Trump sentiment even weaker among supporters of France’s National Rally and Poland’s Law and Justice.

If the US were to halt military aid to Ukraine under a Trump presidency, 41% of Europeans said that the EU should either increase its support or maintain it at its current level, while 33% would prefer the EU to follow the US lead.

On the second anniversary of Russia’a invasion of Ukraine, the report’s authors said Europeans were not in a “heroic mood”, or even optimistic about the situation. But, they said, Europeans’ commitment to preventing a Russian victory had not moved.

The challenge for western policymakers, they argued, would be to successfully address the dichotomy between falling public confidence about how the war would end, and the desire to maintain support in order to prevent a Russian victory.

“As Europe and the US enter election season, the quest to define peace will be a critical battleground,” the authors wrote. “Leaders will need to find a new language that resonates with current sentiment.”

Ivan Krastev, the report’s other co-author, said the biggest danger was that Trump – and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has hinted that he is open to negotiations on his terms – “try to portray Ukraine and its backers as the ‘forever war’ party, while they claim the mantle of ‘peace,’”

A Russian victory “is not peace”, said Krastev, who is chair of the Sofia-based Centre for Liberal Strategies thinktank. “If the price of ending the war is turning Ukraine into a no man’s land, this will be a defeat not only for Kyiv but for Europe and its security.”

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Airlines and passengers getting a little nutty wit it 😜

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With poverty soaring, unelected leaders of island kingdom continue undeterred with their wmd program:

“It left the submarine but it just went plop, right next to them.”

Militaristic regime offered further explanations: "The whole point of the hundreds of billions we are spending on the nuclear weapons programme is that it is supposed to work.”

At the same time, food bank use is soaring

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/21/labour-seeks-trident-assurances-after-missile-test-anomaly

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Hilarious.

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