Futurology

What does 20 times more powerful look like? At some point will LLM AI be constrained by datasets based on human knowledge? If it still has the hallucination problem, and no ability to reason, does it just mean its faster?

I'm amazed BYD can sell the Seagull for less than $12,000. If they could sell it in the US or EU at that price it would easily become the biggest selling car.

Facebook and YouTube are receding from their role as watchdogs against conspiracy theories ahead of the 2024 presidential election

Its interesting to see so much investor money chase AI unicorns at the moment. Something tells me many of them might be making the wrong bets.

AGI, nanobots, fully autonomous self driving cars, cancer cures and aging cures, significant life extension, etc are all a long way off. Decades.

I’m not saying they’ll never happen, of course, just that we’re a long time away from them. I see way too many people thinking that these things are around the corner, and it makes me sad.

With regards to life extension especially (since i see a looooot of people think they personally will get to live forever), the odds of biotech and medicine advancing in our lifetimes to the extent that it facilitates biological immortality and indefinitely extended lifespans is slim to none at best. Go ask the actual experts if you don’t believe me.

The most we will see in our lifetimes is increased HEALTHspan, and tbh even that is iffy since we don’t even know if we will get even that.

In my opinion the first generations to experience significantly extended lifespans and age reversal probably haven’t been born yet. That’s how long i think it’s going to take.

Marvin Minsky thought he was going to solve the issue of reasoning with computers in the 1960s, and we are still waiting. It will be done some day, but is this the route?

I'm not going to bet against AI in the long run, but I wonder if ChatGPT (in its current form) will gain mass adoption.