Futurology

The new pope's choice of name was deliberate; he chose it to honor Pope Leo XIII who was Pope from 1878 - 1903. Leo XIII is famous for taking a left-wing stance on workers' rights in response to the Industrial Revolution, and calling for state pensions, social security, and other reforms rooted in social democracy.

It will be interesting to see what Pope Leo XIV calls for. Universal Basic Income? It wouldn't surprise me. The day is soon coming that humans won't be able to economically compete with ultra-cheap AI/robot-employee staffed businesses.

Some people scoff at the notion of the Catholic Church concerning itself with such things. If they do, they're underestimating the Church's vast soft power. Vatican City might be the world's smallest state, but the Catholic Church is arguably the preeminent global superpower when it comes to soft power.

There are 1.4 billion Catholics, and if the church decides to support UBI, it will have a vast reach to sway politicians in 100+ countries on almost every continent.

In an interview this week, Mark Zuckerberg said most Americans have only 3 friends, but they'd like 15. Never fear, he has a solution to how to get 5 times more friends. Meta will create AI friends for you. As it will own them, as befits the world's second largest advertising company, their primary purpose will really be to sell you stuff.

Even in an episode of 'Black Mirror', this vision of the future would rank as one of the bleaker dystopian hellscapes. It says something about how out of touch Big Tech has become with the lives of ordinary people, it never even occurred to Mark Zuckerberg how appalling this sounds to most people.

Switching Chinese factory jobs to America has been in the news a lot lately. Many people have pointed out it doesn't make much sense. Do Americans really want sweatshop-wage jobs making sneakers?

Another reason it doesn't make sense is that China is dumping those jobs anyway - replacing the humans with robots. The numbers are startling. If the trends of the last ten years continue, China will be creating 1 million industrial robots by 2029. By 2032, it will be creating more industrial robots, than there were new human jobs in the US in 2024. Robots may even be adopted on an s-curve, and be adopted in far higher numbers sooner.

Where is this heading? Will the robots keep the aging Chinese population economically afloat? Will using humans in factories instead of robots in the US be seen as a noble alternative to the socialism of UBI?

Source: Rise of China's Robotics Industry: from Manufacturing Arms to Embodied AI

NASA's plans are up in the air once again. The latest plans, yet to be approved by Congress, seek to ditch the SLS/Artemis plans for the Moon, and instead focus on sending people to Mars. That suits SpaceX's agenda, and would send NASA's money their way.

This will make it certain the first human base on the Moon will be Chinese. That is planned for the early 2030's and in recent days the Chinese have spoken more about its location. They are mapping the lunar south pole for water, but still haven't found the ideal spot, but that the 2026 Chang'e-7 mission might narrow it down further.

Hollywood's love of dystopian sci-fi has a lot to answer for, as it has shaped many people's ideas about the future very negatively. One of the most persistent of those ideas is that robots will only be owned by the 1%, who will use them to subjugate everyone else.

Reality is shaping up to be different. Free, open-source AI is the equal of anything privately controlled. Robotics too looks like it is following a similar trajectory. The Berkeley Humanoid Lite is built with off-the-shelf and 3D-printed components and costs just $5,000.

Contrary to doomerist fantasies, with decentralized renewable energy, and open-source AI & robotics - it seems hard to believe the 1% will own everything in the future.

One of the distortions of AI commentary is that so much of its focus is on Venture Capitalism. Because many people are incentivized to talk about where the big money is flowing, they ignore outside their bubble. Meanwhile, often the really significant things happen elsewhere.

With AI that 'really significant' thing - is that free open-source AI is the global future, far more than the VC darlings like OpenAI. Not that the people pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the likes of OpenAI are likely to admit that.

There are more signs of this as recently as this week. Yet again, free open-source AI (in this the Qwen3 family from Alibaba) is not only equalling the best of the investor-funded AI, they are bettering it in some metrics.

The VC's thinking is that one of their bets will make big & generate trillions in revenue, but it seems hard to believe when all over the world people can pick up what you're trying to sell for free.