Futurology

Self-driving AI attracts its fair share of nay-sayers. It's typical to hear people say the technology is decades away, but the facts don't back up these claims.

In fact, the opposite seems true - its widespread adoption is just around the corner. Here's some data that seems to back that up. China is selling millions of EVs to the rest of the world, and in 2023 became the world's biggest car exporter. It's sobering to think about the world when it is selling millions of self-driving cars - does each one of these equal a job loss for a human?

McKinsey seems very optimistic about the effects of AI development. The report talks about how soon 50% of work currently done by humans can be done by AI. It says that as developed world economies are aging, AI won't replace workers, it will make up for the shortfall in new young workers. That strikes me as a naive best-case scenario.

The real issue will be that AI-workers will be cheaper than humans. Most people's wage level is determined by free market prices. It's why global forces keep working class wages low in America or Europe. AI will be that, but orders of magnitude greater. It will also be doing it to professional more powerful people, which means politicians are running out of time to ignore the issue.

At first, an in-ear phone and language translator, while useful, might not seem compelling. But take things a bit further. This relies on a mini-computer and connection to the internet in the hearing aid. What if that allowed you to connect to Chat-GPT? Or future more powerful versions of it. That might be more compelling. Sci-fi has often envisioned cyborgs in the future. Maybe one day people will look back at stuff like this and think it was the first baby steps of that technology.

This issue will become unavoidable in a few years. China is preparing to lay down markers for its lunar south pole moonbase. There's a relatively tiny area of land there that will be extremely valuable (near permanent sunlight & frozen water). As soon as two groups are sharing it, they will be forced to cooperate.

3D home printing has matured enough as a technology to be viable. Yet despite the global housing shortage, chronic to so many countries, has yet to take off. Here the $37,600 price includes finished rooms inside. The company is aiming to build on cheap land in Japan's smaller cities. They specifically mention targeting remote and work-from-home workers as customers.

This way of doing things could work for 10's of millions of other people around the world, especially as starter homes. The pandemic accelerated a permanent shift to WFH for many people. If some of them had a choice between never being able to afford a home in big cities, but but getting on the property ladder with this option, it seems obvious to me millions of people around the world would choose it.

Many people have tried to call Peak Oil in the past, but this feels significant. Sinopec is the world's biggest oil company, if anyone would know, they would.

This makes me wonder when we will reach global peak oil demand. China has been the main driver of the growth in global oil demand in the 21st century, but now that is gone. Is that date coming soon? EV sales are 38% of new car sales in China, but in the other two major global economies - only approx 20% in the EU & 8% in the US.

We live in an age where elites are consolidating power and money. We can see it all around us. It's tempting to think this will only continue, and AI will be just another tool to enable it to happen.

But I think OP has a better handle on what will happen. All the power and money elites have now is built on very shaky foundations. What happens to banks, stock markets & the mortgage industry - when people don't need to pay doctors, lawyers & a whole host of other professional people for their services anymore, because AI can do their jobs now?