Futurology

The US export controls aimed at limiting Chinese AI development are struggling. China's latest AI reasoning models perform well on older, domestically produced GPU chips, with scale being more critical than chip advancement. China is also progressing toward parity in advanced chip production.

These controls have driven Chinese innovation, leading to models like Deepseek, now considered among the world's best. A significant shift is China's embrace of open-source AI models, expanding its talent pool and offering a strategic edge. In contrast, US efforts rely heavily on private investment, betting on future tech "unicorns" to generate massive profits.

In early 2025 another profound global shift favors Open-Source over US tech. As the US disengages from NATO to side with Russia, Europeans are left scrambling to replace reliance on US technology. They, and much of the rest of the world, are now much less likely to adopt new US technology, as it will be seen as adversarial and a security threat.

A couple of years ago the story of Open-Source AI was just a curiosity to be remarked on, perhaps it is about to take the main stage.

As the US pivots to aligning itself with Russia, and threatening two NATO members with invasion, the NATO alliance seems all but dead. Russia is openly threatening the Baltic states and Moldova, not to mention the hybrid war it has been attacking Europe with for years.

All this has forced action. The EU has announced an €800 billion fund to urgently rearm Europe. Separately the Germans are planning to spend €1 trillion on a military and infrastructure build-up. Meanwhile, the owner of SpaceX and Starlink is coming to be seen as a public enemy in Europe. Twitter/X may be banned, and alternatives to Starlink are being sought for Ukraine.

Europe has been taking a leisurely pace to develop a reusable rocket. ESA has two separate plans in development, but neither with urgent deadlines. Will this soon change? Germany recently announced ambitious plans for a spaceplane that can take off from regular runways. Its 2028 delivery date seemed very ambitious. If it is part of a new German military, might it happen on time?