Europe

EU report: North Macedonia, other Western Balkan countries ‘hard it’ by Russian and Chinese influence campaigns, coercive policies - implemented by Serbia and Hungary

The European Parliament rapporteur for North Macedonia, Thomas Waitz, expresses concerns about Serbian and Hungarian influence that attempt to strengthen the geopolitical interests of Russia and China. This, according to the MEP, is done through disinformation campaigns, hybrid threats, corruption, opaques financial flows and coercive investment practices.

TLDR:

• North Macedonia and other EU accession countries in the Western Balkans are being particularly hard hit by foreign interference and disinformation campaigns, … in this context, the risk of dependence [of North Macedonia] on China caused by asymmetrical loan agreements, as well as the recent loan from Hungary, which appears to be sourced from China.
• The report welcomes North Macedonia’s steady progress in assuring media freedom, recalls, however, the need for continued reforms to ensure an independent and resilient media landscape [and] emphasises the urgent need to counter malign foreign influence in the media landscape, including disinformation disseminated by actors linked to Russia and China
• North Macedonia remains a target of foreign malign influence operations, including efforts to fracture the country’s social fabric and weaponise anti-EU sentiment, notably via Serbian-language tabloids and media outlets, which function as regional amplifiers of Kremlin narratives and enjoy considerable influence, whereas North Macedonia expelled 13 Russian diplomats between 2018 and 2023 for activities incompatible with their diplomatic status, suggesting an ongoing presence of covert influence networks.
• China has sought to expand its influence through information control, investment diplomacy and coercive clauses in infrastructure loan agreements.

MEP Thomas Waitz also stresses that "North Macedonia has drafted an excellent and ambitious reform agenda – arguably one of the best in the region."

He adds that "its rigorous implementation would put the country back on track, especially in key areas such as fighting corruption, ensuring judicial independence, reforming public administration, and improving the situation of media freedom."

"However, some recent developments, including the country’s decision to abstain from the latest European resolution on Ukraine in the UN General Assembly while co-sponsoring the U.S. resolution in February 2025, have raised concerns among North Macedonia’s EU supporters about its long-term trajectory."

"I sincerely hope that all parties—North Macedonia’s authorities, EU institutions, and neighbouring countries—recognise the urgency of the moment and act decisively to move forward," Waitz says.

Archived version

When Chinese and Serbian officials signed a free trade agreement (FTA) on the sidelines of the 2023 Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, it was hailed as the dawn of a new era in bilateral relations. The document was framed not just as an economic pact but as a symbol of deepening strategic alignment between Belgrade and Beijing. Although the deal officially came into effect in July 2024, it had already gained prominence during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile visit to Serbia in May of that year. Now, nearly a year into its implementation, new data is shedding light on how both nations are being affected by the agreement – and what the early returns reveal about this evolving partnership.

TLDR:

• Bilateral trade between Serbia and China surged from $1.5 billion in 2014 to $6 billion by 2023. But behind this dramatic growth lies a more complex story – one marked by persistent imbalance. A decade ago, Serbia’s exports to China were negligible, totaling just $8.9 million in 2013, compared to $1.5 billion in imports from China. By 2023, Serbian exports had jumped to $1.23 billion – an impressive leap, yet still dwarfed by the $4.8 billion worth of Chinese goods entering the Serbian market.
• At the heart of the debate is Serbia’s heavy reliance on copper – an industry now largely controlled by the Chinese mining giant Zijin, which operates locally through its two subsidiaries, Zijin Copper and Zijin Mining. This dynamic has fueled concerns about the exploitative nature of Serbia’s trade relationship with Beijing. ... Analysts warn it may further entrench China’s dominant role in sectors like mining, without creating meaningful opportunities for Serbia’s domestic, export-oriented industries to grow or diversify.
• A closer look at Serbia’s top exports to China reveals a troubling pattern. Of the five leading export categories in 2023, three consisted of raw or minimally processed natural resources. Copper ores and concentrates dominated the list, accounting for $842 million in exports, followed by refined copper at $301 million. The third most exported product – processed wood – trailed significantly at $26 million. While the overall export volume is substantial, critics argue that the composition of these exports tells a more complicated story.
• Serbia’s export portfolio to China remains overwhelmingly concentrated: 93 percent of all exports – roughly $1.76 billion – consisted of copper and copper-related products, the vast majority of which are tied to Chinese-owned mining operations within Serbia.

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cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3424585

Op-ed by Pawel Markiewicz, Executive Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs office in the U.S.

If there’s one thing to take away from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine it is the imperial mindset that is deeply engrained in the psyche of Vladimir Putin and the majority of Russia’s elite – an imperial mindset that in-turn is projected onto the lower levels of society. Putin has also made it clear that any resolution to the conflict launched in Ukraine in 2022 must hinge on drastically limiting or completely removing troops from NATO member states along the alliance’s eastern flank – a region of Europe closest to Russia’s borders where allies, like Poland, have dramatically increased their defence spending in hopes of deterring any thoughts of future Russian aggression.

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One of Russia’s most visible psychological operations in Georgia is the strategy of a “creeping annexation” along the Administrative Boundary Line (ABL) separating Georgia from the Russian-occupied regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Since 2013, Russian and separatist forces have incrementally advanced the ABL deeper into Georgian territory, often under the cover of night, by moving border markers, installing barbed wire fences, and erecting “State Border” signs. This process, known as “borderization”, has resulted in the loss of farmland, homes and livelihoods for Georgian villagers, who sometimes wake up to find their properties suddenly within occupied territory.

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North Korea plans to triple the number of troops it has fighting alongside Russia against Ukraine, CNN reported Wednesday. Ukrainian intelligence estimates cited by the network suggest Pyongyang will send between 25,000 and 30,000 soldiers to join the war in the coming months.

The Ukrainian report says there’s a “great possibility” that North Korean forces will take part in combat in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine “to strengthen the Russian contingent, including during the large-scale offensive operations.”

The intelligence also indicates that Russian forces have started modifying aircraft to transport personnel. Additionally, CNN said it has obtained satellite images that appear to show a North Korean ship at a Russian port and cargo aircraft at North Korea’s Sunan airport.

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Russian propagandists' laser focus on Moldova became abundantly clear during the 2024 presidential elections. The first round of voting, which coincided with a referendum on European integration, is particularly telling.

Of the 482 sources reporting on Moldova's elections during the voting and counting process, 150 Telegram channels were compromised. Their activities were directly linked to a Kremlin effort to influence the media, with state-backed sources starting disinformation campaigns and attempting to manipulate public opinion. In effect, every third source covering Moldova’s presidential elections was unreliable.

Monitoring of similar influence campaigns conducted by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (ICAR) throughout 2024–2025 reveals that compromised and Kremlin-affiliated sources covering Moldova's elections appeared at twice the rate of their typical usage in other political meddling operations.

Russia has compelling reasons to achieve at least a slowdown in Moldova's ascension into the EU, and, if Russia succeeds in installing a puppet parliament, to begin implementing the "Georgian scenario." While the Russians are struggling to create a puppet state like Belarus out of Ukraine, dividing and destabilising Moldova like Russia did with Georgia remains entirely feasible.

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Russia is escalating the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces, the Netherlands Military Intelligence (MIVD) reported on July 4.

Russian troops use banned chemical agents as psychological warfare to panic Ukrainian forces, forcing soldiers from dugouts and trenches with gas grenades dropped by drones, making them easy targets for subsequent drone or artillery attacks.

According to MIVD report, it was previously known that Russia usesd tear gas, but now intelligence has confirmed the use of chloropicrin — a substance that can kill in high concentrations in enclosed spaces.

Use of of chloropicrin, banned under international law, was discovered by the Netherlands Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) and General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) together with the German foreign intelligence service BND.

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Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans, who announced the news to the Dutch parliament, called the situation "absolutely unacceptable," calling for "more sanctions, isolation of Russia and unwavering military support for Ukraine."

"We are making this public now because Russia's use of chemical weapons must not become normalized," Brekelmans said. "If the threshold for using this type of weapon is lowered, it is dangerous not only for Ukraine but also for the rest of Europe and the world."

Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has conducted over 9,000 chemical attacks. At least three Ukrainian soldiers have died directly from exposure to toxic substances, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense.

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