Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

Extreme weather events are become stronger, more frequent, more damaging and harder to predict.

Described as "an unusually early and aggressive start" to hurricane season, Tropical Storm Bret threatens Caribbean islands with flooding.

To me, it sounds like the professionals in charge are throwing their hands up in the air when it comes to predictions about the coming storm season:

"We all know the uncertainty with forecasting intensity, movement and impact of weather systems,” said Fitzroy Pascal at Dominica’s office of disaster management.

Uttar Pradesh in northern India is suffering a deadly heatwave, where the dreaded Wet Bulb effects you've probably heard of are become an immediate threat:

The heat in this part of India has been hovering around the critical “wet-bulb temperature,” the threshold beyond which the human body cannot cool itself to a survivable point by perspiration, defined as 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), adjusted for 100 percent humidity. The wet-bulb reading in Ballia on Saturday reached 34.15 degrees Celsius (about 93 degrees Fahrenheit).

In India, where regions are in varying states of development and there is such a high population, getting reliable data on excess deaths can be difficult. Doctors are anecdotally describing higher numbers of deaths than usual, and attributing them to the heat.

However, the Indian government, while not outright denying it, apparently considers the evidence to not yet be substantial enough to point the finger at global warming:

Dr. Diwakar Singh, formerly the chief medical superintendent of Ballia District, told reporters on Friday night that 34 people had died of heat stroke at the main hospital under his oversight. The next day, he...was removed as chief medical superintendent of Ballia District Hospital by the state government for “giving a careless statement on deaths caused by heatwave without having proper information”.

In another first-of-its-kind case, this time in England, climate activists argue that the estimated environmental impact of a planned oil drilling site does not take into account the inevitable future combustion of the fuel.

From this article:

Ms Finch contends that the environmental impact assessment should have taken into account the climate impacts that would inevitably arise from burning the extracted oil (over three million tonnes could be produced), known as ‘Scope 3’ or ‘downstream’ emissions, which didn’t happen during the planning process.

Scope 3 emissions are increasingly being left out of environmental impact assessments when planning applications are made for fossil fuel projects, despite the huge climate impact these projects can have, the mounting climate crisis and the UK government’s commitment to net zero. But this could all change if this legal challenge succeeds.

It is sad but not surprising that to this day, the people drilling for oil and selling it to be combusted are not required to include this information in their assessment of expected environmental impact.

I doubt this will come to much because, well, money, but I agree and support these individuals fighting the good fight. Much luck to Ms Finch and her associates.

Since pledging in April to ban the opening and licensing of new coal mines, the UK Parliament appears to be backpedaling in an effort to open a brand new coal mine in Cumbria.

Two weeks before the amendment was passed, NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM) published a report stating that the retirement of coal power plants must increase by four-and-a-half times the current global rate. Guidelines in the Paris Agreement also state that every coal plant in the world must be retired by 2040, and that there is no room for new coal capacity to come online.
Source

Climate minister Graham Stuart has firmly backed the opening of the Cumbrian coalmine, recently telling the all-party parliamentary group for the environment that he firmly supported it. He said a more nuanced take on fossil fuels is required “rather than viewing all fossil fuels as the spawn of the devil”.
Source

The downpour follows one of the hottest Mays on record for Canada as wildfires spread throughout a dry Alberta. After a short reprieve, early June saw wildfires again tearing through forest regions.

The fire south of Edson remains out of control but has received around 84 millimetres of rainfall within a span of hours — an amount more typically seen over a period of a month, he said.

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/638998

Sustained high temperatures over summer could trigger mass mortality of fish and oysters, say scientists

From the article:

Daniela Schmidt, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Bristol:

The extreme and unprecedented temperatures show the power of the combination of human-induced warming and natural climate variability like El Niño.
While marine heatwaves are found in warmer seas like the Mediterranean, such anomalous temperatures in this part of the north Atlantic are unheard of. They have been linked to less dust from the Sahara but also the North Atlantic climate variability, which will need further understanding to unravel.

Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics at the University of Leeds:

Cleaning up sulphur from marine shipping fuels is probably adding to the greenhouse gas driven warming. The shift towards El Niño conditions is also adding to the heat. There is also evidence that there is less Saharan dust over the ocean this year. This normally reflects heat away from the ocean. So in all, oceans are being hit by a quadruple whammy – it’s a sign of things to come.

This article is an excellent example of how different climate systems are connected and affect each other in ways that we do not yet fully understand. Climate feedback loops are starting to become apparent even to the uninformed eye, and pardon my French, but shit's about to get crazy.

Sixteen young people in Montana are fighting to hold their state accountable for failing in its obligation to protect residents from the effects of climate change, as mentioned in this post (if anyone knows how to link a post so it can be accessed across instances, please let me know).

This is the first case of its kind to reach trial, although similar cases have been filed before.

It's going about as expected: "Montana has never denied a permit for a fossil fuel project, according to the plaintiffs' attorneys. The state's lead environmental regulator said Monday that permitting practices would not change if the young environmentalists win their case."

In an unexpected twist of fate, "the Earth has lost enough groundwater to thirsty humans to measurably tilt the planet’s axis of rotation" according to this Nature article.

From the article:
"Shifts in water masses can cause smaller but still measurable changes in the tilt of Earth’s axis. Until recently, researchers thought that these water-driven effects would be caused mainly by the melting of glaciers and ice caps. But when Seo and his collaborators tried to model the Earth’s water content to account for how much the axis has tilted, they could not fully explain the data. Adding the effects of changes in surface reservoirs did not help, says Seo, “so I just scratched my head and said, ‘probably one effect is groundwater’”."

This thread is for discussion of collapse-related issues that you’re personally experiencing, have experienced, or that are affecting people you personally know. AKA things you don’t have to read the news to know are happening (although links to relevant news articles are encouraged.)

I was thinking I will try and do a thread like this once a week, or maybe less frequently (like once a month) depending on how it goes.

Some scientists predict that 2023 could be the warmest year on record, as a developing El Niño exacerbates the impacts of the climate crisis.

This thread is for questions or comments about the community, meta content, off-topic themes, or topics you want to discuss but not make a whole post about.

Knowing what we do about the current climate situation and all of its related horrors, the idea of someone's beach day being ruined seems like a pretty insignificant problem. However, I think it's small annoyances like this that can help get the message across to those who are still ignorant of the sheer scale of climate change effects.

Excerpt from the article:

*"What's happening? Thousands of dead fish recently washed ashore in Texas, creating a smelly, disgusting mess some on beaches.
"The oxygen went to zero, everything died," said Crowl. "It was very sad, we had one section where there were 20 or 30 sting rays swimming upside down trying to gasp for air." *

When I read that, I feel absolutely horrified and ashamed that these poor animals had to suffer and die in such a twisted, fucked-up way. The detail about the sting rays is haunting.

But if "smelly, dead fish ruining my beach day" is someone's introduction to climate change issues, and that gets them to start digging and reading more about it, then maybe it's worth it.

A few key points from the article:

"In two states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, at least 98 people died between Thursday and Saturday because of the heat, the India Today magazine reported, citing a local official."

"Last year, spring temperatures broke monthly heat records, a pattern scientists say has worsened because of climate change. Asia more broadly also just experienced its hottest April on record, according to some metrics."

"Experts say that some places in India may simply become too hot for people to work outside if the world does not drastically reduce emissions that are warming the planet."

Backlog in commuter traffic - Renovate Switzerland sticks to Zurich motorway exits

-Climate activists blocked two streets in the city of Zurich on Monday morning, Zurich city police told SRF News.
-The blockade at the Sihlhochstrasse (A3) motorway exit in Wiedikon has been lifted. The traffic is running again.
-According to the Zurich cantonal police, the operation at the Bernerstrasse (A1) motorway exit in Altstetten is still ongoing.

A total of seven activists blocked the two exits, as Keystone-SDA reported. The police have already carried away those who were not taped. At least two activists glued themselves to the street.

It was Renovate Switzerland's first double blockade. So far, they have only stuck to individual road sections. With their actions, the activists draw the ire of many drivers.

Politicians are calling for tougher action

But in politics, too, the tone against the movement has recently intensified. Numerous politicians called for tougher action, and the activists are increasingly being attacked on social networks.

In November, the Zurich cantonal parliament warned that potentially dangerous situations could arise as a result of the road blockades. The actions may not only affect private drivers, but also emergency services from the ambulance, fire brigade or police.

One thing is clear: the climate activists are making themselves punishable with their unauthorized rallies and traffic blockades. Although they are released again after the temporary arrest, they have to put up with charges and fines.

This article describes the "urban heat island" effect, where dense urban areas (too much concrete and no green spaces) can experience temperatures even higher than the regional average, putting the very young, old, sick and vulnerable at risk.

When the regional average is already breaking records, and deep summer not yet upon us, this phenomenon may be frightening for those of us living in European cities.

Cities weren't always built for cars..

I know this graphic is simplified, but I think it's good enough to get the main points across to those who say "It won't affect me" or "It's not so bad" or even "Why should I care?" Here are some of the basic answers to those questions.

This interactive model created by the University of Maine shows a much higher sea surface temperatures, compared to any other year.

Hang on to your butts people. Scientists still can't agree if a BOE (Blue Ocean Event) will come in our lifetime, but things do not look promising.

To see a real-time global map of sea surface temperatures, go to earth.nullschool.net and select Ocean - SST, or Ocean - SSTA for a map of sea surface temperature anomalies.

Note: SIDS here refers to “Small island developing states”, not the other SIDS.

“In the absence of ambitious human intervention to reduce emissions, climate change impacts are likely to make some small islands uninhabitable in the second part of the 21st century. By protecting and restoring nature in and around small islands as well as implementing anticipatory adaptation responses, humans can help reduce future risks to ecosystems and human lives on most small islands.”

Small, developing regions of the world are some of the hardest hit by the growing wave of climate-related phenomena. Air temperature changes, abnormal rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, sea level rise, changing ocean salinity and acidity, and vector-borne disease are only some of the dangers these nations are now facing, despite being insignificant contributors to climate change compared to developed countries.

Dear Friends,

went to our local cemetery to tend an ancient ancestor, well just my gran actually. The grave was full of earth, few months ago seeded with meadow wild flowers. Now cornflowers and others are blooming. Sadly much of the high grassland they will spread to was being mowed with petrol strimmers.

Find the corners of earth, I live in a metro area and will continue seeding as the wind blows …

The EEA has published a report on their expectations for the coming summer, our collective future, and what is currently being done and can still be done. It probably comes as no surprise to anyone here when they state "The overall outlook is pessimistic as we have already seen this past winter and spring."

TL;DR:
-More, longer and stronger heatwaves
-More frequent, extreme flooding
-More frequent, severe droughts
-More widespread wildfires
-Rise in climate-sensitive diseases

“The short version is: Expect surprises,” Rick Spinrad, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in an interview on Monday. “We’re putting heat into the system — through climate change, through the greenhouse effect — and that heat is going to manifest. That energy is going to manifest in any number of different ways.”

Extreme and unprecedented weather phenomena are going to get more frequent and more severe in the coming years. This could contribute to a situation where there are too many crises for emergency response, healthcare and infrastructure maintenance services to deal with.

(edit: web.archive link was removed so I have to link back to the original article)

Article as PDF in google drive

Parts of the UK suffered heavy flooding last month and communities are now struggling to cope with the damages.

We can expect this kind of phenomenon become more and more frequent in the coming years, leaving residents and emergency services lacking in the increasing humanpower required to deal with such events.

Quotes from the article:

"Parts of Somerset experienced extremely heavy rainfall in May with some areas having more than two weeks' worth of rain in a few hours."

"Somerset councillor Sarah Dyke, lead member for Environment and Climate Change, said the council will investigate the flooding over the next few months.

"The flooding came from absolutely nowhere," she told BBC Points West."

Meanwhile, flooding and unusual weather continue elsewhere in the UK.