Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

Ecological overshoot is the second largest risk to humanity. Not reacting to it is the biggest. Mathis Wackernagel, co-creator of the ecological footprint and co-founder of the Global Footprint Network, joins us. Highlights of the conversations include:

• How ecological footprint is calculated as a measure of how much of nature’s regenerative capacity humanity is using;

• Why the estimate that we’re using the natural regenerative capacity of 1.7 Earths is an underestimate of humanity’s actual ecological overshoot;

• Why shrinking our ecological footprint needs to be framed as an opportunity for resource security, not just noble and charitable but absolutely necessary if humanity hopes to end overshoot more by design and less by disaster;

• Why international development schemes that emphasize GDP growth and not resource security won’t work for the ¾ of humanity stuck in the ‘ecological poverty trap’ of depleted resources and insufficient income to buy those resources from other countries; 

• Why countries not putting resource security at the center of their economic development plans is suicidal;

• Why peoples’ motivation to end ecological overshoot will be driven by desire, agency, and curiosity - not by trying to command and control peoples’ behavior.

China missed a key climate target in 2024 and emissions in the world's second-largest economy rose slightly as coal remained dominant despite record renewable additions, official data showed Friday.

The figures mean the world's biggest emitter is off-track on a key commitment under the Paris climate agreement, analysts said.

Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said carbon intensity, which measures emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide per unit of GDP, fell 3.4 percent in 2024—short of an official target of 3.9.

That also put the country well behind on its goal for an 18-percent reduction from 2020 to 2025.

The data showed carbon emissions rose slightly from last year, though far short of previous jumps, as experts speculate about whether China may have reached peak emissions ahead of a 2030 target.

Still, the data showed it will be "extremely hard" for China to meet a pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent of 2005 levels by 2030, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

"Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China's key Paris target," Myllyvirta said.

"This is a key test of China's commitment to its pledges under the agreement."

[...]

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18947237

The sustained spike in ocean temperatures cost lives and caused billions of dollars in storm damage, increased whale and dolphin stranding risks, harmed commercial fishing and sparked a global coral bleaching, according to the paper published on Friday in Nature Climate Change.

What is happening with your time? From the increased screen time and slop, to addiction and antisocial behavior - the world seems to be on fire, yet we seem to be disengages, isolated and lonely.

This video is about death of the community, screen addiction, AI generated slop media, it is about the theft of your wage and time by the ultrarich and the failure of the state to take control of the social decay, climate change, and economic threats - and so much more.

Worth a watch

Archived version

Summary

• Despite his climate leadership stance ahead of COP30, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is pushing to approve oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon.
• Lula argues that oil revenues will fund Brazil’s energy transition. Critics say this is a flawed justification for expanding oil extraction under the guise of financing climate solutions.
• If projects get the green light, activists highlight the potential for significant environmental damage, including threats to biodiversity and Indigenous communities.
• Critics fear that approving this project will set a precedent for further oil exploration in the Amazon region, worsening environmental risks. In June, Brazil’s petroleum agency will auction more than 300 oil blocks across the country, including 47 at the mouth of the Amazon and 21 onshore in central Brazil.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18904538

Archived link

Executive summary

The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it.

People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum.

Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis.

If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/56766127

cross-posted from: https://rss.ponder.cat/post/119792

The findings are very stark. Emissions now need to fall by 0.3% per year, just to stand still. That’s a tall order since they typically increase by 1.2% per year,”

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18727221

TIM LENTON: I’m not the only climate scientist who would tell you that if we go to 3 degrees Celsius of warming later this century—which is roughly where we’re heading on current policies—or, if we’re unlucky, and the climate is more sensitive, and that turns out to be 4 degrees Celsius or even more, we see such fundamental changes in the habitability of large areas of the planet that we find it hard not to conclude that there could be some kind of major social disruption, and thus an economic breakdown.

You could think of it as a fifty-fifty chance of losing everything or having a major social collapse

For centuries, poets, scholars and theologians have flocked to Chinguetti, a trans-Saharan trading post home to more than a dozen libraries containing thousands of manuscripts.

But it now stands on the brink of oblivion. Shifting sands have long covered the ancient city’s 8th-century core and are encroaching on neighborhoods at its current edge. Residents say the desert is their destiny.

01:09 - Cliodynamics

03:23 - Isaac Asimov + Psychohistory

05:00 - Mathematical chaos

06:39 - Dennis Meadows + TGS Episode

07:08 - 2010 prediction about US political instability

08:33 - Social Complexity & Collapse research group

12:30 - The US productivity-pay gap + more info

14:46 - Number of billionaires in the US over time

16:20 - Who are the elites?

17:19 - Russian oligarchs

17:47 - Elite overproduction

19:18 - Immiseration

28:34 - 1929 stock market crash + 1870s US recession

29:29 - New Deal + American Civil War

30:47 - Iron law of oligarchy

31:48 - Early state formation

32:04 - The collapse of small-scale societies

36:06 - Declining life expectancy in US + in 2017

39:23 - Chartism in the UK

40:38 - Age of Revolutions, Taiping Civil War

41:00 - UK Reform Act of 1832

41:45 - Democracy in America

41:52 - Great Reforms of Alexander II

42:16 - 1917 Russian Revolution

44:22 - The Black Death

45:19 - Food prices and the French Revolution

46:06 - Trends in income inequality in different countries

48:42 - Jeremy Grantham + TGS Episode

49:47 - Impacts of the Black Death

52:21 - When AI comes for the elites

53:27 - Impact of AI on law jobs

Description from YT:

The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval?

In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history - and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.

How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation’s stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump’ moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability?

About Peter Turchin:

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.

Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown. Turchin has authored ten books. His most recent books are End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration and The Great Holocene Transformation (forthcoming).

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/164-peter-turchin

In 1990, a US Naval War College report found that “nearly all areas of operational effectiveness are threatened” by climate change. That was 35 years, around 70 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, and six presidential administrations ago. On Wednesday, a statement from the Department of Defense attributed to acting deputy Defense Secretary Robert Salesses said climate change is “woke.”