collapse of the old society

The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe

archived (Wayback Machine)

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/66968363

Abstract

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.

A new set of detailed clues gleaned from ancient fossil reefs on the Seychelle Islands shows an increasing likelihood that human-caused warming will raise the global average sea level at least 3 feet by 2100, at the high end of the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Due to regional variations, sea level would rise twice that much in some tropical areas, causing misery for millions of people living in low-lying coastal zones, including islands like the Maldives, in the Indian Ocean, which would be completely swamped by 6 feet of sea level rise.

We live in interesting times (in the Chinese.proverb sense)

Climate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought unless society acts, according to a new study published in Science.

So, worse then thought then, we are after all barely pretending to reduce emissions amd in many cases weve eschewed even that.

I find the verbage of "average sized dead zone" to be an interesting gauge of how normalized environmental destruction is becoming. As if a massive section of hypoxic oceaniss to be expected.

I'm going to highlight this paragraph:

It's worth saying, too, as many headlines point out, that meeting our target temperature of +1.5°C means we still lose the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We should hope for this target, even if it's all but impossible, because it's certainly better than the alternative. But, as I've made clear, I don't think it's gonna happen.

A billion people live in areas 40 ft or less above sea level, areas that will be flooded when - not if, WHEN - the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets go. A billion climate refugees. That's not a "possibility". That's inevitable even in the best case scenario of 1.5 C. The most likely scenario - 3 to 4 C by 2100 - is exponentially worse.

Solarpunk is about radical hope. Plenty of the visions for a solarpunk future are unlikely or improbable. But none of those visions should be impossible.

A future where the seas don't rise? That's impossible.

A future where we slow the rising seas through both individual and collective action, prepare global civilization for the oncoming crisis with love, unity, and respect for every single person's basic humanity, and end capitalism? That's still worth fighting for.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.nz/post/23662164

Global public debt could increase to 100 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of the decade if current trends continue, according to projections in our latest Fiscal Monitor. The rising ratio of public debt to GDP reflects renewed economic pressures as well as the consequences of pandemic-related fiscal support, according to our report. This trend raises fresh concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability as many countries face rising budget challenges.

The Chart of the Week shows that about a third of countries, accounting for 80 percent of global GDP, have public debt that’s both higher than it was before the pandemic and rising at a faster pace. More than two-thirds of the 175 economies in our study now have heavier public debt burdens than before COVID spread in 2020.

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/05/29/debt-is-higher-and-rising-faster-in-80-percent-of-global-economy

archived (Wayback Machine)

archived (Wayback Machine)

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lazysoci.al/post/27255604

Author is: Cities By Diana. There are some urbanism themes.

Video description:

We are in a recession. The indicators are everywhere. Bad vibes, rage bait, AI generated slop content filling our for you feeds. Some may debate whether or not we are actually in financial recession, but there’s more to this recession than economic indicators. We are in a romance recession, an empathy recession, a creativity recession, a sincerity recession, a friendship recession, a vibes recession.

There’s this feeling that you can’t say or do the things you used to without being censored, or worse being called CRINGE. Everyone around you is busy, stressed, overwhelmed or generally disengaged from life. The quality of everything has reduced - products break sooner, food tastes worse. Every app has enshittified and become flooded with advertisements and negativity. entry-level jobs requiring years of experience, multiple rounds of interviews that if you even get through it all you get a lowball offer.

Dating apps have killed the traditional ways to find love and romance, and those have enshittified to the point where they are unusable, any alternatives like meeting people in the real world now seem more difficult than ever with the loss of third spaces and car-centric design of cities in the west, places where people do gather requiting a substantial purchase simply to exist in public life. Any time you leave the house it feels like you spend a hundred dollars or more.

We’ve been told for the past couple of years that the economy is booming, unemployment is at an all time low, we have the entire sum of everything ever known in the palm of our hands.

Yet we are all tired, lonely, broke, afraid or unable to do anything. Comments sections online are full of arguments, even on morally or politically neutral topics. We misunderstand each other, often deliberately. Some of us spend more time talking to ChatGPT than we do our own friends and family members. We are the most comfortable, most technologically advanced and most well educated generation in human history - yet we are miserable, lonely and stuck in a recession deeper than just economic. We are in a recession of the heart and mind.

Tldr: 3-6 ft of sea level rise is inevitable, which will result in at least 230 million climate refugees fleeing coastal areas around the world. At this point the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are almost guaranteed to collapse, which will result in 40 ft of sea level rise and more than a billion climate refugees. And the only thing cutting carbon admissions now will do is slow the rate at which the world warms and give these refugees more time to escape the coasts.

Slowing that rate is still worth doing. And there's still hope to limit the damage. But what a wonderful world we've bequeathed to our children, huh?

A mysterious, brown foam appeared on a beach an hour south of Adelaide. It was just the beginning of a toxic algal bloom that has now grown to thousands of square kilometres in size, killing precious sea life in its wake. Experts say it could be a sign of things to come.

The blame was placed on an “ongoing marine heatwave” which had seen water temperatures 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual.

On Kangaroo Island, which reported its first fish kills in March, some beaches were so littered with dead sea life, the smell was overpowering.

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archived (Wayback Machine)