collapse

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/25574612

Of the five stations they list in their table, the one which shows the most obvious acceleration (St. Petersburg) is the one they don’t show the graph of! Of course they didn’t find acceleration in U.S. tide gauge records, because they never looked for it. They only looked for what they wanted to see, and that’s all they found. If you do analyze sea level data (and I have), in light of the most recent data (from satellites and from tide gauges) acceleration is obvious, both for the U.S.A. and the globe as a whole.

Pretty shallow view of what is hitting limits of a finite planet.

An epic analysis of 5,000 years of civilisation argues that a global collapse is coming unless inequality is vanquished

I'd agree with that, inequality is just another toxic symptom of our current civilization, like pollution, climate change, environmental degredation etc.

We can’t put a date on Doomsday, but by looking at the 5,000 years of [civilisation], we can understand the trajectories we face today – and self-termination is most likely,” says Dr Luke Kemp at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge.

“I’m pessimistic about the future,” he says. “But I’m optimistic about people.”

I'd clarify my postion as, surely it's obvious civilisation can't last but humans will, what comes after ? Interesting qiestion but entirely irrelevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s44271-025-00284-9

Some individuals persist in behaviors that incur harm to themselves or others. While adaptive decision-making requires integrating such punishment feedback to update action selection, the mechanisms driving individual differences in this capacity remain unclear. Here, in a sample spanning 24 countries (N = 267), we used a conditioned punishment task to identify how individuals learn from and adapt to punishment. We identified three, behaviorally robust phenotypes: (1) Sensitive, who correctly inferred punishment causality and adaptively updated decisions through direct experience of punishment; (2) Unaware, who failed to correctly infer punishment causality from direct experience but corrected their decisions following an informational intervention clarifying consequences; and (3) Compulsive, who persisted in harmful decisions despite both punishment and informational intervention. These phenotypes were driven by distinct cognitive mechanisms: (1) causal inference deficits, where individuals misinterpreted punishment causality, impairing correct knowledge acquisition (remediable via targeted informational intervention); and (2) integration failure, a deficit in synthesizing causal knowledge, action valuation, and action selection that rendered decision-making inert to punishment feedback, even after targeted informational intervention. Remarkably, these phenotypes predicted longitudinal outcomes (learning trajectories, choice behavior) six months later. By identifying the cognitive mechanisms driving variation in human punishment learning, this work provides a framework to understand why individuals persist in harmful behavior and highlights the need for approaches to address these distinct cognitive barriers to adaptive decision-making.

Abstract

Projections of tropical rainfall under global warming remain highly uncertain1,2, largely because of an unclear climate response to a potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)3. Although an AMOC slowdown can substantially alter tropical rainfall patterns4,5,6,7,8, the physical mechanisms linking high-latitude changes to tropical hydroclimate are poorly understood11. Here we demonstrate that an AMOC slowdown drives widespread shifts in tropical rainfall through the propagation of high-latitude cooling into the tropical North Atlantic. We identify and validate this mechanism using climate model simulations and palaeoclimate records from Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1)—a past period marked by pronounced AMOC weakening9,10. In models, prevailing easterly and westerly winds communicate the climate signal to the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean through the transport of cold air generated over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. Air–sea interactions transmit the response across the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, altering rainfall patterns as far as Indonesia, the tropical Andes and northern Australia. A similar teleconnection emerges under global warming scenarios, producing a consistent multi-model pattern of tropical hydroclimatic change. These palaeo-validated projections show widespread drying across Mesoamerica, the Amazon and West Africa, highlighting an elevated risk of severe drought for vulnerable human and ecological systems.

Pollution incidents reported between 2014 and 2019 were compared against scientific study that used satellite imagery to count slicks

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/25382162

But South Australia’s killer algal bloom is advancing towards this natural wonder. If the algae reach the breeding site in the coming weeks or months, they could wipe the cuttlefish population out.

Introduction

Extracting and processing materials is one of the most underappreciated yet powerful forces shaping our world. According to the Global Resources Outlook 2024, over half of global greenhouse gas emissions and 90% of land-use related biodiversity loss stem from resource extraction and processing.1 Yet global material use keeps growing relentlessly. Since 1970, natural resource extraction has more than tripled. Today, the total mass of human-made materials— concrete, steel, plastic and more—has surpassed the weight of all living biomass on Earth.

This deep dive explores the material foundations of our economy and wellbeing—foundations that are both indispensable and increasingly destructive. It highlights how raw materials underpin everything from food and energy to digital communication, and shows how current patterns of overuse, waste, and inequality are pushing us beyond planetary boundaries. It also lays bare the growing geopolitical tensions and environmental justice issues tied to resource dependency and scarcity.

To achieve the five extraordinary turnarounds at the heart of the vision set out in Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity —eliminating poverty, reducing inequality, empowering women, transforming food systems, and realising the energy transition— materials emerge as a unifying thread. This paper explores that connection in greater depth.

This means rethinking how we use resources, shifting from linear “take-make-waste” systems toward circular economies, and ensuring fairer access to materials essential for life and for a sustainable future.

Abstract

Global estimates of methane (CH4) emissions from lakes to the atmosphere rely on understanding CH4 processes at the sediment-water interface (SWI). However, in the Arctic, the variability, magnitude, and environmental drivers of CH4 production and flux across the SWI are poorly understood. Here, we estimate CH4 diffusive fluxes from the sediment into the water column in 10 lakes in Arctic Scandinavia and Svalbard using porewater modeling and mass transfer estimates, which we then compare with 60 published estimates from the Arctic to the tropics. Diffusion of CH4 in the sampled lake sediments ranged from −0.46 to 3.1 mmol m−2 day−1, which is consistent with previous reports for Arctic and boreal lakes, and lower than for temperate and tropical biomes. Methane production occurs primarily within the top ∼10 cm of sediment, indicating a biogenic origin. Random forest predictive modeling of the sampled lakes revealed that conditions promoting production and deposition of autochthonous organic carbon in Arctic lakes drive CH4 diffusion into the water column by fueling sediment CH4 production. For small lakes across biomes, determinants of the estimated CH4 flux were also best captured by climate predictors, with warmer and wetter conditions favoring ecosystem productivity and enhancing flux but also lake morphometry resulting in important regional variability in estimates. Our study emphasizes the importance of quantifying diffusive CH4 fluxes from sediments in diverse lake types to account for differences in the controls on primary production and the preservation of organic carbon across and within different biomes, to refine CH4 emission estimates in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Lakes in the Arctic release large amounts of methane to the atmosphere, which increases global warming. This study explores how methane moves from the sediments (accumulated layers of mud and organic matter) of Arctic lakes, where it is produced, into the overlying water. We find that most lakes release methane from their sediments, with some lakes having higher-than-expected methane levels, especially further north. The results from our advanced data analysis techniques suggest that carbon content in the water and sediment, lake depth and size, and latitude and elevation all influence methane production and release. Overall, we highlight the need to study methane dynamics from a wider variety of lakes to better understand and predict how methane is produced and released in different environments.

Key Points

We quantified the diffusive methane flux and determined the depth of biogenic methane production in the sediments of 10 Arctic lakes

Regional methane flux variability in Arctic lakes relates to production and preservation of autochthonous organic matter

Lake morphometry and climate are important predictors of methane diffusive flux from the sediment for small lakes across biomes

Climate change is increasing the odds of breaking heat records everywhere because the global temperature is now higher overall and extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and hotter and lasting longer.

Abstract

Plastic pollution of the marine realm is widespread, with most scientific attention given to macroplastics and microplastics1,2. By contrast, ocean nanoplastics (<1 μm) remain largely unquantified, leaving gaps in our understanding of the mass budget of this plastic size class3,4,5. Here we measure nanoplastic concentrations on an ocean-basin scale along a transect crossing the North Atlantic from the subtropical gyre to the northern European shelf. We find approximately 1.5–32.0 mg m−3 of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) nanoplastics throughout the entire water column. On average, we observe a 1.4-fold higher concentration of nanoplastics in the mixed layer when compared with intermediate water depth, with highest mixed-layer nanoplastic concentrations near the European continent. Nanoplastic concentrations at intermediate water depth are 1.8-fold higher in the subtropical gyre compared with the open North Atlantic outside the gyre. The lowest nanoplastic concentrations, with about 5.5 mg m−3 on average and predominantly composed of PET, are present in bottom waters. For the mixed layer of the temperate to subtropical North Atlantic, we estimate that the mass of nanoplastic may amount to 27 million tonnes (Mt). This is in the same range or exceeding previous budget estimates of macroplastics/microplastics for the entire Atlantic6,7 or the global ocean1,8. Our findings suggest that nanoplastics comprise the dominant fraction of marine plastic pollution.

cross-posted from: https://sopuli.xyz/post/30951006

If she raises climate change at a party, “at some point someone says, ‘Look, you’re being a bit of a Debbie Downer’ … it was nice to sit in that room with other people, no one was hysterical, no one was over the top, no one was crazy [but] people weren’t going, ‘Oh, calm down. It’ll be fine.’ ”

https://sarahwilson.substack.com/p/table-of-contents

Tuvalu is preparing to carry out the first planned migration of an entire country in response to the effects of climate change.

Abstract

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented.