Collapse

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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.


Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.


RULES

1 - Remember the human

2 - Link posts should come from a reputable source

3 - All opinions are allowed but discussion must be in good faith.

4 - No low effort, high volume and low relevance posts.


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founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
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Hello,

Coming here from the migration post, just noticed that in the sidebar.

Good luck with the move, hope everything went well.

Have a good one

Edit: as a side-note, why didn't you lock the community you left? Usually it's the best way to ensure people actually move to the new one

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submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
 
 

Abstract

The reflectance of the Earth is a fundamental climate parameter that we measured from Big Bear Solar Observatory between 1998 and 2017 by observing the earthshine using modern photometric techniques to precisely determine daily, monthly, seasonal, yearly and decadal changes in terrestrial albedo from earthshine. We find the inter-annual fluctuations in albedo to be global, while the large variations in albedo within individual nights and seasonal wanderings tend to average out over each year. We measure a gradual, but climatologically significant urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62955:grl62955-math-00010.5 urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl62955:grl62955-math-0002 decline in the global albedo over the two decades of data. We found no correlation between the changes in the terrestrial albedo and measures of solar activity. The inter-annual pattern of earthshine fluctuations are in good agreement with those measured by CERES (data began in 2001) even though the satellite observations are sensitive to retroflected light while earthshine is sensitive to wide-angle reflectivity. The CERES decline is about twice that of earthshine.

Key Points

We report on two decades of earthshine measurements of the earth's reflectance made from Big Bear Solar Observatory yielding a large-scale terrestrial albedo

We find a decline in albedo between 1998 and 2017, corresponding to a radiative increase of 0.5 W/m2, which is climatologically significant

The CERES data show the same behavior, which is attributed to a reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation reducing the Earth's albedo

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Column-Compound Extremes in the Global Ocean (agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
 
 

Abstract

Marine extreme events such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidity extremes and low oxygen extremes can pose a substantial threat to marine organisms and ecosystems. Such extremes might be particularly detrimental (a) when they are compounded in more than one stressor, and (b) when the extremes extend substantially across the water column, restricting the habitable space for marine organisms. Here, we use daily output of a hindcast simulation (1961–2020) from the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model to characterize such column-compound extreme events (CCX), employing a relative threshold approach to identify extremes and requiring them to extend vertically over at least 50 m. The diagnosed CCX are prevalent, occupying worldwide in the 1960s about 1% of the volume contained within the top 300 m. Over the duration of our simulation, CCX become more intense, last longer, and occupy more volume, driven by the trends in ocean warming and ocean acidification. For example, the triple CCX expanded 39-fold, now last 3-times longer, and became 6-times more intense since the early 1960s. Removing this effect with a moving baseline permits us to better understand the key characteristics of CCX, revealing a typical duration of 10–30 days and a predominant occurrence in the Tropics and high latitudes, regions of high potential biological vulnerability. Overall, the CCX fall into 16 clusters, reflecting different patterns and drivers. Triple CCX are largely confined to the tropics and the North Pacific and tend to be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

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#280: Not what you’ve been told (surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
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The Destiny of Civilization (thehonestsorcerer.substack.com)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
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Last Rites for a Dying Civilization (collapseofindustrialcivilization.com)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
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Archive - Liminal World (liminalworld.substack.com)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
 
 

A collapse chronicle

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Abstract

Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of Wm−2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

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A world without growth (consciousnessofsheep.co.uk)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
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Abstract

Methane emissions from solid waste may represent a substantial fraction of the global anthropogenic budget, but few comprehensive studies exist to assess inventory assumptions. We quantified emissions at hundreds of large landfills across 18 states in the United States between 2016 and 2022 using airborne imaging spectrometers. Spanning 20% of open United States landfills, this represents the most systematic measurement-based study of methane point sources of the waste sector. We detected significant point source emissions at a majority (52%) of these sites, many with emissions persisting over multiple revisits (weeks to years). We compared these against independent contemporaneous in situ airborne observations at 15 landfills and established good agreement. Our findings indicate a need for long-term, synoptic-scale monitoring of landfill emissions in the context of climate change mitigation policy.

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Abstract

Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change1. Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, Rrs), because Rrs is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year Rrs time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in Rrs for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°. The climate-change signal in Rrs emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model2, which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour—and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems—that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years.

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#279: The fiascos of denied decline (surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com)
submitted 1 year ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee
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