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Conclusions

This has been, by intention, a retrospective review of economic trends dating back to 1980. But most of us are interested, not just in where we’ve come from, but in where we’re going.

The ‘big factors’ that emerge from our retrospective analysis can be listed as follows.

1. Both the non-energy resource base and the ex-cost economic value of energy have been depleting markedly, trends greatly exacerbated by relentless increases in population numbers.

2. Most of the “growth” reported in financial aggregates has been cosmetic, a product of ignoring debt and other liabilities, disregarding ECoE, and excluding natural resource depletion from our measurement of economic output.

3. Four decades of reported “growth” have, in fact, seen material economic prosperity barely outperform the rate of growth in the global population.

These underlying trends are continuing. Comparing 2040 with 2023, we can expect the Energy Cost of Energy to rise by about 75%, and the conversion ratio of natural resources into economic value to continue to decrease. Significantly, aggregate energy production is likely to decline, with falls in fossil fuels output only partly offset by increases in the supply of renewables.

On this basis, the aggregate of material economic output is likely to fall by around 18%.

If population numbers continue to increase – albeit at a decelerating rate – the World’s average person is likely to be fully 27% less prosperous in 2040 than he or she is today. At the same time, the cost of necessities per capita is projected to be about 40% higher in 2040 than it is today.

As well as pushing the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services sharply downwards, this trend will undermine the ability of households to support their enormously-expanded commitments to the financial system.

If past form is anything to go by, decision-makers, far from accepting actual economic reality and acting accordingly, are likely to carry on trying to stimulate the material economy with monetary tools.

On this basis, a “GFC II” sequel to the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has now been hard-wired into the system.

The decisions that we make are ours alone, but the effectiveness of our choices – financial, occupational, political, social and perhaps even geographical – can only be enhanced if we opt for facts in preference to myths.

Abstract

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

Radio Ecoshock 2019-03-13

We are living in a time of mass extinction of species large and small. How serious is that? What are the rules of extinction? Two scientists, Italian and Australian, investigated. Their study published November 2018 in Nature contains unpleasant surprises.

Our guest is Dr. Corey Bradshaw. He is the Matthew Flinders Fellow in Global Ecology, at Flinders University in South Australia. Corey has published at least 300 papers and three books. His latest is “The Effective Scientist: A Handy Guide to a Successful Academic Career”.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/03/the-rules-of-extinction.html

Abstract

Safe drinking water access is a human right, but data on safely managed drinking water services (SMDWS) is lacking for more than half of the global population. We estimate SMDWS use in 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at subnational levels with a geospatial modeling approach, combining existing household survey data with available global geospatial datasets. We estimate that only one in three people used SMDWS in LMICs in 2020 and identified fecal contamination as the primary limiting factor affecting almost half of the population of LMICs. Our results are relevant for raising awareness about the challenges and limitations of current global monitoring approaches and demonstrating how globally available geospatial data can be leveraged to fill data gaps and identify priority areas in LMICs.

Abstract

Few studies report the occurrence of microplastics (MP), including tire wear particles (TWP) in the marine atmosphere, and little data is available regarding their size or sources. Here we present active air sampling devices (low- and high-volume samplers) for the evaluation of composition and MP mass loads in the marine atmosphere. Air was sampled during a research cruise along the Norwegian coast up to Bear Island. Samples were analyzed with pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, generating a mass-based data set for MP in the marine atmosphere. Here we show the ubiquity of MP, even in remote Arctic areas with concentrations up to 37.5 ng m−3. Cluster of polyethylene terephthalate (max. 1.5 ng m−3) were universally present. TWP (max. 35 ng m−3) and cluster of polystyrene, polypropylene, and polyurethane (max. 1.1 ng m−3) were also detected. Atmospheric transport and dispersion models, suggested the introduction of MP into the marine atmosphere equally from sea- and land-based emissions, transforming the ocean from a sink into a source for MP.

Abstract

Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49+13/−21 ng THg g sediment−1 and 39+16/−18 ng THg g sediment−1 for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4+2.0/−2.4 Gg THg Pg C−1 and 4.2 +2.4/−2.9 Gg THg Pg C−1. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95+12/−47 kg THg yr−1 and 26+154/−13 kg THg yr−1 at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60+40/−29 kg THg yr−1 and 10+5.3/−1.7 kg THg yr−1). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers.

Abstract

Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a). How to cite.

Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., Hartley, A. J., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., McNorton, J. R., Spuler, F. R., Wessel, J. B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Anderson, L. O., Andela, N., Archibald, S., Armenteras, D., Burke, E., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Clarke, H., Doerr, S. H., Fernandes, P. M., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Harris, S., Jain, P., Kolden, C. A., Kurvits, T., Lampe, S., Meier, S., New, S., Parrington, M., Perron, M. M. G., Qu, Y., Ribeiro, N. S., Saharjo, B. H., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Shuman, J. K., Tanpipat, V., van der Werf, G. R., Veraverbeke, S., and Xanthopoulos, G.: State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024.

Received: 02 Jun 2024 – Discussion started: 13 Jun 2024 – Revised: 25 Jul 2024 – Accepted: 29 Jul 2024 – Published: 14 Aug 2024

Abstract

Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

Key Points

Recent regulations on ship sulfur emissions have decreased ship tracks and resulted in +0.12 Wm−2 of radiative forcing

Observed cloud anomalies are correlated with observed ocean temperature anomalies and shipping radiative forcing

Reduced ship emissions may have accelerated global warming contributing to recent warm Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures

Plain Language Summary

Ships have a unique climate effect due to brightening of low marine clouds, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. These ship tracks are due to clouds interacting with ship emissions, particularly sulfur. Recently, regulations have drastically reduced allowable ship sulfur emissions. This has resulted in a decrease in observable ship tracks. Modeling and observations indicate that the reduction in ship sulfur emissions could have slightly warmed the planet starting in 2020. These changes are remarkably co-incident with observed patterns of cloud changes and may have accelerated global warming.

Abstract

Where is humanity going? How realistic is a future of fusion and space colonies? What constraints are imposed by physics, by resource availability, and by human psychology? Are default expectations grounded in reality?

This textbook, written for a general-education audience, aims to address these questions without either the hype or the indifference typical of many books. The message throughout is that humanity faces a broad sweep of foundational problems as we inevitably transition away from fossil fuels and confront planetary limits in a host of unprecedented ways—a shift whose scale and probable rapidity offers little historical guidance.

Salvaging a decent future requires keen awareness, quantitative assessment, deliberate preventive action, and—above all—recognition that prevailing assumptions about human identity and destiny have been cruelly misshapen by the profoundly unsustainable trajectory of the last 150 years. The goal is to shake off unfounded and unexamined expectations, while elucidating the relevant physics and encouraging greater facility in quantitative reasoning.

After addressing limits to growth, population dynamics, uncooperative space environments, and the current fossil underpinnings of modern civilization, various sources of alternative energy are considered in detail— assessing how they stack up against each other, and which show the greatest potential. Following this is an exploration of systemic human impediments to effective and timely responses, capped by guidelines for individual adaptations resulting in reduced energy and material demands on the planet’s groaning capacity. Appendices provide refreshers on math and chemistry, as well as supplementary material of potential interest relating to cosmology, electric transportation, and an evolutionary perspective on humanity’s place in nature.

Corrections and feedback can be left at https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/energy-text/

Abstract

The year of 2023 was the warmest on record globally and the second warmest in Europe. Here we applied epidemiological models to temperature and mortality records in 823 contiguous regions from 35 countries to estimate sex- and age-specific heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and to quantify the mortality burden avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since the year 2000. We estimated 47,690 (95% confidence interval 28,853 to 66,525) heat-related deaths in 2023, the second highest mortality burden during the study period 2015–2023, only surpassed by 2022. We also estimated that the heat-related mortality burden would have been +80.0% higher in absence of present-century adaptation, especially in the elderly (+100.7% in people aged 80+ years). Our results highlight the importance of historical and ongoing adaptations in saving lives during recent summers and the urgency for more effective strategies to further reduce the mortality burden of forthcoming hotter summers.