Collapse

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/13929793

"This should be the final nail in the coffin for the false narrative that LNG was somehow a climate solution”

Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events across the GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35%–40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June–August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase in similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase in anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic.

Humanity’s rapacious consumption is more than Earth and its climate can handle, which is driving an ecological crisis.

Hurricane Helene’s ‘historic flooding’ made worse by global heating, Fema says

Helene aftermath: At least 92 dead, severe flood risk remains

Historic North Carolina village underwater after devastating damage from Helene

'We're desperate': Mexico's Acapulco relives hurricane nightmare - One year after Otis

This Japanese region is still recovering from a deadly earthquake. Now record rains have flooded its streets

Edit: I forgot to post links about Nepal.

At least 193 killed, 100 injured in flooding and landslides in Nepal

Nepal floods and landslides death toll passes 200, reports say

Abstract

Scientific evidence has documented we are undergoing a mass extinction of species, caused by human activity. However, allocating conservation resources is difficult due to scarce evidence on damages from losing individual species. This paper studies the collapse of vultures in India, triggered by the expiry of a patent on a painkiller. Our results suggest the functional extinction of vultures—efficient scavengers that removed carcasses from the environment—increased human mortality by over 4 percent because of a large negative shock to sanitation. We quantify damages at $69.4 billion per year. These results suggest high returns to conserving keystone species such as vultures

Abstract

Background

Over 1800 food contact chemicals (FCCs) are known to migrate from food contact articles used to store, process, package, and serve foodstuffs. Many of these FCCs have hazard properties of concern, and still others have never been tested for toxicity. Humans are known to be exposed to FCCs via foods, but the full extent of human exposure to all FCCs is unknown. Objective

To close this important knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic overview of FCCs that have been monitored and detected in human biomonitoring studies according to a previously published protocol.

Methods

We first compared the more than 14,000 known FCCs to five biomonitoring programs and three metabolome/exposome databases. In a second step, we prioritized FCCs that have been frequently detected in food contact materials and systematically mapped the available evidence for their presence in humans.

Results

For 25% of the known FCCs (3601), we found evidence for their presence in humans. This includes 194 FCCs from human biomonitoring programs, with 80 of these having hazard properties of high concern. Of the 3528 FCCs included in metabolome/exposome databases, most are from the Blood Exposome Database. We found evidence for the presence in humans for 63 of the 175 prioritized FCCs included in the systematic evidence map, and 59 of the prioritized FCCs lack hazard data.

Significance

Notwithstanding that there are also other sources of exposure for many FCCs, these data will help to prioritize FCCs of concern by linking information on migration and biomonitoring. Our results on FCCs monitored in humans are available as an interactive dashboard (FCChumon) to enable policymakers, public health researchers, and food industry decision-makers to make food contact materials and articles safer, reduce human exposure to hazardous FCCs and improve public health.

Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

But can you mine without fossil fuels and fossil-derived materials? How much materials do you need to mine to first transition and then maintain the infrastructure? Can you maintain renewable just with renewable? Taking progressively lower grade ores? What do you do with growing volume of tailings?

Such articles are more than a bit misleading.

Abstract

Waste heat production represents an inevitable consequence of energy conversion as per the laws of thermodynamics. Based on this fact, by using simple theoretical models, we analyze constraints on the habitability of Earth-like terrestrial planets hosting putative technological species and technospheres characterized by persistent exponential growth of energy consumption and waste heat generation: in particular, we quantify the deleterious effects of rising surface temperature on biospheric processes and the eventual loss of liquid water. Irrespective of whether these sources of energy are ultimately stellar or planetary (e.g., nuclear, fossil fuels) in nature, we demonstrate that the loss of habitable conditions on such terrestrial planets may be expected to occur on timescales of ≲1000 years, as measured from the start of the exponential phase, provided that the annual growth rate of energy consumption is of order 1%. We conclude by discussing the types of evolutionary trajectories that might be feasible for industrialized technological species, and sketch the ensuing implications for technosignature searches.

Abstract

Human populations tend to grow steadily, because of the ability of people to make innovations, and thus overcome and extend the limits imposed by natural resources. It is therefore questionable whether traditional concepts of population ecology, including environmental carrying capacity, can be applied to human societies. The existence of carrying capacity cannot be simply inferred from population time-series, but it can be indicated by the tendency of populations to return to a previous state after a disturbance. So far only indirect evidence at a coarse-grained scale has indicated the historical existence of human carrying capacity. We analysed unique historical population data on 88 settlements before and after the Thirty Years War (1618–1648), one the longest and most destructive conflicts in European history, which reduced the population of Central Europe by 30–50%. The recovery rate of individual settlements after the war was positively correlated with the extent of the disturbance, so that the population size of the settlements after a period of regeneration was similar to the pre-war situation, indicating an equilibrium population size (i.e. carrying capacity). The carrying capacity of individual settlements was positively determined mostly by the fertility of the soil and the area of the cadastre, and negatively by the number of other settlements in the surroundings. Pre-industrial human population sizes were thus probably controlled by negative density dependence mediated by soil fertility, which could not increase due to limited agricultural technologies.

Abstract

Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world1,2. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low3,4, leaving societies largely unprepared5,6. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10–26% globally. Our EC-corrected projections reveal that the increase in LAD will be 42–44% greater, on average, than ‘mid-range’ or ‘high-end’ future forcing scenarios currently indicate. These results imply that by the end of this century, the global mean land-only LAD could be 10 days longer than currently expected. Using two generations of climate models, we further uncover global regions for which historical LAD biases affect the magnitude of projected LAD increases, and we explore the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks therein. Our findings reveal regions with potentially higher- and earlier-than-expected drought risks for societies and ecosystems, and they point to possible mechanisms underlying the biases in the current generation of climate models.

Abstract

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.