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Abstract

Carbon Dioxide Removal is essential for achieving net zero emissions, as it is required to neutralize any residual CO2 emissions. The scientifically recognized definition of Carbon Dioxide Removal requires removed atmospheric CO2 to be stored “durably”; however, it remains unclear what is meant by durably, and interpretations have varied from decades to millennia. Using a reduced-complexity climate model, here we examined the effect of Carbon Dioxide Removal with varying CO2 storage durations. We found that storage duration substantially affects whether net zero emissions achieve the desired temperature outcomes. With a typical 100-year storage duration, net zero CO2 emissions with 6 GtCO2 per year residual emissions result in an additional warming of 0.8 °C by 2500 compared to permanent storage, thus putting the internationally agreed temperature limits at risk. Our findings suggest that a CO2 storage period of less than 1000 years is insufficient for neutralizing remaining fossil CO2 emissions under net zero emissions. These results reinforce the principle that credible neutralization claims using Carbon Dioxide Removal in a net zero framework require balancing emissions with removals of similar atmospheric residence time and storage reservoir, e.g., geological or biogenic.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/32683339

The Arctic is likely to become “ice-free” by midcentury—and could pass that grim milestone much sooner unless much more is done to combat climate change

Well, good luck with that.

Abstract

Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.

Highlights

Four linked landfill-wastewater treatment systems were sampled over two consecutive years.
Concentrations of microplastics were estimated in particle counts and mass of plastic per volume or dry mass.
Mass balances for microplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were estimated.
Municipal wastewater treatment removed microplastics effectively, but PFAS removal depended on their chemical structure.

Abstract

Landfills and wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) are point sources for many emerging contaminants, including microplastics and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Previous studies have estimated the abundance and transport of microplastics and PFAS separately in landfills and WWTPs. In addition, previous studies typically report concentrations of microplastics as particle count/L or count/g sediment, which do not provide the information needed to calculate mass balances. We measured microplastics and PFAS in four landfill-WWTP systems in Illinois, USA, and quantified mass of both contaminants in landfill leachate, WWTP influent, effluent, and biosolids. Microplastic concentrations in WWTP influent were similar in magnitude to landfill leachates, in the order of 102 μg plastic/L (parts-per-billion). In contrast, PFAS concentrations were higher in leachates (parts-per-billion range) than WWTP influent (parts-per-trillion range). After treatment, both contaminants had lower concentrations in WWTP effluent, although were abundant in biosolids. We concluded that WWTPs reduce PFAS and microplastics, lowering concentrations in the effluent that is discharged to nearby surface waters. However, partitioning of both contaminants to biosolids may reintroduce them as pollutants when biosolids are landfilled or used as fertilizer.

Significance

The composition of the biosphere is a fundamental question in biology, yet a global quantitative account of the biomass of each taxon is still lacking. We assemble a census of the biomass of all kingdoms of life. This analysis provides a holistic view of the composition of the biosphere and allows us to observe broad patterns over taxonomic categories, geographic locations, and trophic modes.

Abstract

A census of the biomass on Earth is key for understanding the structure and dynamics of the biosphere. However, a global, quantitative view of how the biomass of different taxa compare with one another is still lacking. Here, we assemble the overall biomass composition of the biosphere, establishing a census of the ≈550 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) of biomass distributed among all of the kingdoms of life. We find that the kingdoms of life concentrate at different locations on the planet; plants (≈450 Gt C, the dominant kingdom) are primarily terrestrial, whereas animals (≈2 Gt C) are mainly marine, and bacteria (≈70 Gt C) and archaea (≈7 Gt C) are predominantly located in deep subsurface environments. We show that terrestrial biomass is about two orders of magnitude higher than marine biomass and estimate a total of ≈6 Gt C of marine biota, doubling the previous estimated quantity. Our analysis reveals that the global marine biomass pyramid contains more consumers than producers, thus increasing the scope of previous observations on inverse food pyramids. Finally, we highlight that the mass of humans is an order of magnitude higher than that of all wild mammals combined and report the historical impact of humanity on the global biomass of prominent taxa, including mammals, fish, and plants.

This melting will lead to a rise in sea levels of up to one metre, threatening millions of people in coastal areas.

That's just from Greenlands ice sheets (by 2100)

This is on point as well

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/11/29/an-eighth-of-an-inch-in-how-long/

Article is mostly how to profit of human stupidity but I thought this quote was salient and on topic. Not new for people who have paid attention though but a reminder.

"[The world] will have to produce approximately a billion tonnes of copper metal in the next 25 years to meet net zero targets," he said.

That is more copper than has ever been produced.

Clean energy might help deal with emissions, but it does nothing to reverse deforestation, overfishing, soil depletion and mass extinction. A growth-obsessed economy powered by clean energy will still tip us into ecological disaster.” - Jason Hickel

Land degradation is expanding worldwide at the rate of 1m sq km every year, undermining efforts to stabilise the climate, protect nature and ensure sustainable food supplies, a study has highlighted.

The degraded area is already 15m sq km, an area greater than Antarctica, the scientific report says, and it calls for an urgent course correction to avoid land abuse “irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental wellbeing”.

Seems unlikely that anything will be done then as we stroll purposefully and knowingly off the Seneca Cliff of civilisations collpase.

Abstract

Many modeling studies depend on direct air capture (DAC) in their 1.5°C stabilization scenarios. These studies rely on assumptions that are overly optimistic regarding the cost and scaling-up of DAC systems. This can lead to highly misleading results that can ultimately impact the ability to reach climate stabilization goals.

Abstract

Some narratives in international development hold that ending poverty and achieving good lives for all will require every country to reach the levels of GDP per capita that currently characterise high-income countries. However, this would require increasing total global output and resource use several times over, dramatically exacerbating ecological breakdown. Furthermore, universal convergence along these lines is unlikely within the imperialist structure of the existing world economy. Here we demonstrate that this dilemma can be resolved with a different approach, rooted in recent needs-based analyses of poverty and development. Strategies for development should not pursue capitalist growth and increased aggregate production as such, but should rather increase the specific forms of production that are necessary to improve capabilities and meet human needs at a high standard, while ensuring universal access to key goods and services through public provisioning and decommodification. At the same time, in high-income countries, less-necessary production should be scaled down to enable faster decarbonization and to help bring resource use back within planetary boundaries. With this approach, good lives can be achieved for all without requiring large increases in total global throughput and output. Provisioning decent living standards (DLS) for 8.5 billion people would require only 30% of current global resource and energy use, leaving a substantial surplus for additional consumption, public luxury, scientific advancement, and other social investments. Such a future requires planning to provision public services, to deploy efficient technology, and to build sovereign industrial capacity in the global South.

Abstract

Achieving net zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO2 emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO2 removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some “passive” CO2 uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth due to CO2 fertilisation, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions. By including passive CO2 uptake, nominal net zero emissions would not halt global warming, undermining the Paris Agreement. Here we discuss measures addressing this problem, to ensure residual fossil fuel use does not cause further global warming: land management categories should be disaggregated in emissions reporting and targets to better separate the role of passive CO2 uptake; where possible, claimed removals should be additional to passive uptake; and targets should acknowledge the need for Geological Net Zero, meaning one tonne of CO2 permanently restored to the solid Earth for every tonne still generated from fossil sources. We also argue that scientific understanding of net zero provides a basis for allocating responsibility for the protection of passive carbon sinks during and after the transition to Geological Net Zero.

Significance

Heatwaves can lead to considerable impacts on societal and natural systems. Accurate simulation of their response to warming is important for adaptation to potential climate futures. Here, we quantify changes of extreme temperatures worldwide over recent decades. We find an emergence of hotspots where the hottest temperatures are warming significantly faster than more moderate temperatures. In these regions, trends are largely underestimated in climate model simulations. Globally aggregated, we find that models struggle with both ends of the trend distribution, with positive trends being underestimated most, while moderate trends are well reproduced. Our findings highlight the need to better understand and model extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm.

Abstract

Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events.

Abstract

Ocean-emitted dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a major source of climate-cooling aerosols. However, most of the marine biogenic sulfur cycling is not routed to DMS but to methanethiol (MeSH), another volatile whose reactivity has hitherto hampered measurements. Therefore, the global emissions and climate impact of MeSH remain unexplored. We compiled a database of seawater MeSH concentrations, identified their statistical predictors, and produced monthly fields of global marine MeSH emissions adding to DMS emissions. Implemented into a global chemistry-climate model, MeSH emissions increase the sulfate aerosol burden by 30 to 70% over the Southern Ocean and enhance the aerosol cooling effect while depleting atmospheric oxidants and increasing DMS lifetime and transport. Accounting for MeSH emissions reduces the radiative bias of current climate models in this climatically relevant region.

Abstract

This article reports on recycling e-wastes using a VVF power cable as a model through a rapid pyrolytic process following exposure to microwave radiation. This occurred via three possible pathways: (i) discharges at the copper wire on exposure to microwaves, with heat produced causing the thermal decomposition of the covering material – a relationship exists between the length of the copper wire and the wavelength of the microwaves; (ii) microwave heating softened the wire's covering material and ultimately led to its decomposition – in addition, the coating material carbonized by the discharge is rapidly heated by microwaves; (iii) the carbonaceous component present in the covering material absorbed the microwaves, causing the thermal decomposition. On the other hand, for VVF cables longer than 12 cm canceled the wavelength-dependent process, and the longer the VVF cable was, the more efficient was the microwave-induced pyrolysis, therefore eliminating the need to pre-cut the waste VVF cable into smaller pieces. The microwave-induced pyrolysis showed that chlorine could be recycled as HCl and the carbon and activated carbon produced could be recovered as carbon black. While conventional pyrolysis might produce tar substances and polycyclic aromatic compounds, microwave pyrolysis has been shown to enable extremely rapid resource recovery, with only C6 to C12 linear alcohols produced as intermediates; no formation of tar-like substances, polycyclic aromatic compounds, or dioxins were detected. Clearly, microwave-induced pyrolysis has proven suitable for recycling/recovery of e-waste containing metals and requires no pre-treatment to separate the plastics from the metals.

New research shows that climate models underestimate regional heating by large margins