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Abstract

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations outlines 17 goals for countries of the world to address global challenges in their development. However, the progress of countries towards these goal has been slower than expected and, consequently, there is a need to investigate the reasons behind this fact. In this study, we have used a novel data-driven methodology to analyze time-series data for over 20 years (2000–2022) from 107 countries using unsupervised machine learning (ML) techniques. Our analysis reveals strong positive and negative correlations between certain SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). Our findings show that progress toward the SDGs is heavily influenced by geographical, cultural and socioeconomic factors, with no country on track to achieve all the goals by 2030. This highlights the need for a region-specific, systemic approach to sustainable development that acknowledges the complex interdependencies between the goals and the variable capacities of countries to reach them. For this our machine learning based approach provides a robust framework for developing efficient and data-informed strategies to promote cooperative and targeted initiatives for sustainable progress.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/19443079

Beware of hyperbolic headlines. But in this case, I’m afraid, as Ulrike Herrmann’s very readable book The End of Capitalism makes clear, the choice between capitalism and civilisation really does seem to be either/or – and the end will probably come a lot sooner that we thought.

Most of the world has dirty air, with just 17% of cities globally meeting air pollution guidelines, a report Tuesday found.

Colour me surprised :(

It reminds me of this from last year

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-24/air-pollution-modelling-university-of-melbourne-traffic/102015778

Traffic pollution likely causes more than 11,000 premature deaths in Australia a year, new modelling by climate researchers has revealed.

Map showing the number of Dairy Herds infected with H5N1 "Bird Flu". Color shading indicating percentage affected of out of all herds.

The deluge left hospital rooms underwater, turned neighborhoods into islands and cut electricity to swaths of the city. National Security Minister Patricia Bullrich said Bahia Blanca was "destroyed."

Maybe their climate denying President's chainsaw can be used to gouge some drainage ditches ? /s

Abstract

Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5–4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10–31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20–48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.

In much the same way, it’s often unclear even to experts how global systems interact because they are siloed in their disciplines. That limits our ability to confront intersecting problems: the climate crisis forces migration; xenophobia fuels the rise of the far right in receiving countries; far-right governments undermine environmental protections; natural disasters are more destructive. Yet migration experts may not be experts on the climate crisis, and climate experts may have limited knowledge of geopolitics.

That’s why Homer-Dixon thinks better communication is essential – not just to create consensus around what we call our current predicament but also how to address it.

I don't agree better communication will help at all. It doesn't overcome willful ignorance and stupidity.

These are Cipolla's five fundamental laws of stupidity:

1. Always and inevitably, everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

2. The probability that a certain person (will) be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

4. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places, and under any circumstances, to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

5. A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

The money flowing to the stock market and oligarchs has come at the expense of the real economy

Indeed

The sustained spike in ocean temperatures cost lives and caused billions of dollars in storm damage, increased whale and dolphin stranding risks, harmed commercial fishing and sparked a global coral bleaching, according to the paper published on Friday in Nature Climate Change.

Abstract

Extreme heat is well-documented to adversely affect health and mortality, but its link to biological aging—a precursor of the morbidity and mortality process—remains unclear. This study examines the association between ambient outdoor heat and epigenetic aging in a nationally representative sample of US adults aged 56+ (N = 3686). The number of heat days in neighborhoods is calculated using the heat index, covering time windows from the day of blood collection to 6 years prior. Multilevel regression models are used to predict PCPhenoAge acceleration, PCGrimAge acceleration, and DunedinPACE. More heat days over short- and mid-term windows are associated with increased PCPhenoAge acceleration (e.g., Bprior7-dayCaution+heat: 1.07 years). Longer-term heat is associated with all clocks (e.g., Bprior1-yearExtremecaution+heat: 2.48 years for PCPhenoAge, Bprior1-yearExtremecaution+heat: 1.09 year for PCGrimAge, and Bprior6-yearExtremecaution+heat: 0.05 years for DunedinPACE). Subgroup analyses show no strong evidence for increased vulnerability by sociodemographic factors. These findings provide insights into the biological underpinnings linking heat to aging-related morbidity and mortality risks.

Abstract

The rate of natural sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere by the terrestrial biosphere peaked in 2008. Atmospheric concentrations will rise more rapidly than previously, in proportion to annual CO2 emissions, as natural sequestration is now declining by 0.25% per year. The current atmospheric increment of +2.5ppm CO2 per year would have been +1.9ppm CO2, if the biosphere had maintained its 1960s growth rate. This effect will accelerate climate change and emphasises the close connection between the climate and nature emergencies. Effort is urgently required to rebuild global biodiversity and to recover its ecosystem services, including natural sequestration.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18853458

The findings are very stark. Emissions now need to fall by 0.3% per year, just to stand still. That’s a tall order since they typically increase by 1.2% per year,”

TIM LENTON: I’m not the only climate scientist who would tell you that if we go to 3 degrees Celsius of warming later this century—which is roughly where we’re heading on current policies—or, if we’re unlucky, and the climate is more sensitive, and that turns out to be 4 degrees Celsius or even more, we see such fundamental changes in the habitability of large areas of the planet that we find it hard not to conclude that there could be some kind of major social disruption, and thus an economic breakdown.

You could think of it as a fifty-fifty chance of losing everything or having a major social collapse

We and coauthors2 interpret that uniquely large warming as being due about equally to a moderate El Nino and reduction of ship aerosols, with a smaller contribution from the present solar maximum (our entire paper, including Abstract & Supplementary Material is available in a single compressed PDF here). An “acid” test of our interpretation will be provided by the 2025 global temperature: unlike the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, which were followed by global cooling of more than 0.3°C and 0.2°C, respectively, we expect global temperature in 2025 to remain near or above the 1.5°C level. Indeed, the 2025 might even set a new record despite the present weak La Nina. There are two independent reasons. First, the “new” climate forcing due to reduction of sulfate aerosols over the ocean remains in place, and, second, high climate sensitivity (~4.5°C for doubled CO2) implies that the warming from recently added forcings is still growing significantly.

mmm, acid